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4 Year Cycle

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On March 28, 2004 @ 7:27 am In Finance,Politics | Comments Disabled

The S&P 500 overlayed against each President’s term, 1949 -1996

4_year_cycle.jpg

As this chart makes clear, the beginning of a President’s term is often the worst for the markets [1]. That’s because all newly elected Presidents want to get the painful economic medicine down, and pray for a full blown expansion, oh, say around re-election time [2]. This is not per se bad or evil, its simply Human nature — ignore it at your own financial peril [3].

We’ve done a lot of commentary on Politics and the market the past few weeks. I’m ready to move that to the backburner for a while — at least until the next major poll or interesting issue arises.

The election is still 8 months away; Pace yourselves!

This week, I plan on focusing on some interesting Job Creation issues I’ve been playing with. Also, in light of some absurd new proposed legislation [4], I’d also like to resurrect our analysis on the Music Industry, and how they are actually killing themselves.


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2004/03/4-year-cycle/

URLs in this post:

[1] worst for the markets: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/03/how_government_.html

[2] re-election time: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/03/incumbent_victo.html

[3] financial peril: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/03/geopolitical_te.html

[4] absurd new proposed legislation: http://www.wired.com/news/digiwood/0,1412,62830,00.html

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