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Chart of the Week: Presidential Election Cycle Gains

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On March 11, 2004 @ 2:15 pm In Finance | Comments Disabled

The Presidential election cycle tends to see markets bottom in the 2nd year of a Presidency, and peak in the 4th. It held true in 2002, where the markets bottomed on October.

Presidential Election Cycle Gains
spx_presidential_cycle.bmp
Source: ChartoftheDay.com [1]

The cycle predicts that the market will peak this year. Note that we are still below the average percentage gain since 1950. While this is not conclusive, it suggests there is still room left to run.

Random Items:
Fed’s Rate Policy Makes Some Economists Uneasy [2]
Keeping tabs on the CPI & the CRB [3]
With the Bull Market Stalled, Pros Hunt for Signs of a Peak [4]
The Jobless Recovery – Is It a Fundamental Shift? [5]
Tech industry begins options lobbying blitz [6]
Cutting Discretionary Spending Alone Just Won’t Work [7]

Quote of the Day:
“If you are partial to car crashes, train wrecks, wrestling matches and bloodshed, this will be a fun time.” -Norman Ornstein [7], American Enterprise Institute

UPDATE: Emails have made it clear I should put the Quote of the Day into context: Ornstein is referring to the present congressional budget, and the negotiation/battle attached to it. That quote is from the opening paragraph of his commentary, Cutting Discretionary Spending Alone Just Won’t Work [7]


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2004/03/chart-of-the-week-presidential-election-cycle-gains/

URLs in this post:

[1] ChartoftheDay.com: http://www.chartoftheday.com/20030618.htm

[2] Fed’s Rate Policy Makes Some Economists Uneasy: http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_berry&sid=a2r86ECqwhm8

[3] Keeping tabs on the CPI & the CRB: http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8774A663%2D4BB5%2D421F%2DB281%2D20ADA821FD50%7D&siteid=mktw

[4] With the Bull Market Stalled, Pros Hunt for Signs of a Peak: http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB107878735667349682,00.html

[5] The Jobless Recovery – Is It a Fundamental Shift?: http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/955.cfm

[6] Tech industry begins options lobbying blitz: http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/8094761.htm

[7] Cutting Discretionary Spending Alone Just Won’t Work: http://www.aei.org/news/newsID.20077,filter./news_detail.asp

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