Consistent job losses began in 2001; They only ended after a massive stimulus package of tax cuts, deficit spending, interest rate cuts, combined with increases in the money supply and a currency devaluation began working their way through the system.

number_of_jobs_created_monthy_1_year.bmp
Source: Dismal.com

Despite the lack of job creation, real consumer spending continues to drive the economy. The lack of wage growth calls the ability of consumers to keep spending into question:

income_without_wages.gif

From Economy.com:

“Wages currently account for only 55% of personal income, nearly the lowest on record. Wage growth has been a drag on overall income growth for an unprecedented period (see chart). Nominal wage income fell on a yearly basis in 2002 for the first time in the history of the series back to 1960 and growth in wages continues to account for only about 40% of income growth, despite recent acceleration.

Spending was sustained during this period largely due to other supports to household cash flow. Primarily these came in the form of extraction of rapidly growing home equity and tax cuts. However, as noted many times, those supports to spending are nearing an end. Consumers will get one more lift from last year’s tax cuts in the form of higher than normal refunds, although refunds through mid-February were falling short of initial expectations. Home equity extraction through refinancing has already dropped significantly, but will fall further later in the year when mortgage rates resume their ascent.”

I am actually less negative on the consumer than “The Dismal Scientist” — but that’s not necessarily beciase I am positive on Wage Growth; It simply means I have less confidence in the public’s ability to moderate their spending habits (i.e., reducing “sport shopping”) to a level commensurate with their real income growth and debt levels . . .

Source:
Jobs, Please
Scott Hoyt,
The Dismal Scientist
March 8, 2004

http://www.economy.com/dismal/pro/article.asp?aid=2674

Category: Finance

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

One Response to “Jobs and Consumer Spending”

  1. MattS says:

    The tax cuts were small stimulus compared to their size. Short-run business cycle versus long-run and all that.