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More Electoral Math

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On March 5, 2004 @ 3:01 pm In Finance,Politics | Comments Disabled

Here’s an interesting take from Tom Curry of MSNBC [1] on the various permutations of the electoral college: You may be surprised to learn that the Democrats could win the White House without carrying any Southern states, or that Bush could overcome loss of a key state such as Ohio.

“The Democratic bastions are the Northeast, the Pacific Coast states, and two Midwestern states, Illinois and Michigan. The Republican strongholds are the South, the Rocky Mountain states, and the Great Plains states.” This distribution is apparent in the state by state electoral results of 2000:

2000_pres_results.bmp [1]

The G.O.P. start the 2004 with an advantage: “Due to population shifts among the states and reapportionment, the states which Bush carried in 2000 now have seven more electoral votes than they did four years ago. In 2000, Bush won 271 electoral votes; this year, with the same states he’d have 278.”

Traditionally Democratic states have had slower population growth — losing electoral votes. Meanwhile, Republican states such have gained population — and electoral clout:

2004_electoral_vote_changes.bmp [1]

A number of intriguing scenarios are feasible on Nov. 2:

- Kerry wins — even while carrying no Southern states.
- Bush wins — without Ohio.
- Could Bush win a second term even if he lost both Ohio and Florida?
- Deadlock scenario: Bush 269, Kerry 269.

This will shake out as we get closer to November. Until then, expect all of the swing States — and even the relatively close ones — to be toughly contested.

Source:
Electoral math may hold surprises [1]
Tom Curry
MSNBC, 11:51 a.m. ET March 04, 2004

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4415235


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[1] MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4415235

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