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Presidential Election Indicators

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On June 24, 2004 @ 1:58 pm In Politics | Comments Disabled

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We spend a lot of time discussing various market indicators, and how to balance some against others when they are in apparent conflict.

So when I came across Dan Froomkin [1]‘s take of USA Today [2] six ‘reliable’ presidential-election indicators, I simply had to reproduce them:

Economic formula [3] suggest Bush wins;
Low approval-rating [4] precedent says Kerry wins;
War-president [5] precedent says Bush wins;
Ohio is a bellwether [6]: Tossup;
Northern Democrats [7] don’t stand a chance. Bush wins;
Kerry is taller [8]; Kerry wins

The fact that these disagree with each other makes them all the more amusing . . .

Sources:
Election-predicting tools point both ways [2]
Depending on which criteria you use, either Bush or Kerry is a lock to win in November
Susan Page
USA TODAY, June 24, 2004

http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20040624/6314204s.htm

White House Briefing [1]
Dan Froomkin
Washington Post, Thursday, Jun 24, 2004; 11:50 AM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/politics/administration/whbriefing/


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2004/06/presidential-election-indicators/

URLs in this post:

[1] Dan Froomkin: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/politics/administration/whbriefing/

[2] USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20040624/6314204s.htm

[3] Economic formula: http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20040624/6314161s.htm

[4] Low approval-rating: http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20040624/6314169s.htm

[5] War-president: http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20040624/6314159s.htm

[6] Ohio is a bellwether: http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20040624/6314168s.htm

[7] Northern Democrats: http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20040624/6314160s.htm

[8] Kerry is taller: http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20040624/6314167s.htm

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