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Presidential Polling Data Resources

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On August 6, 2004 @ 6:42 am In Politics | Comments Disabled

While the polls bounce around, I’ve discovered a few sites with permanent links to consistently informative data. These pages have distinguished themselves:

1) electoral vote.com [1]:

Simply a graphic depiction of these here United States, with polling data broken down by states and their electoral votes. See this chart as an example:

Click for larger graphic
ev_aug06 [2]
graphic courtesy of electoral vote.com [1]

The Electoral Vote Predictor right now shows Kerry at 280, and Bush at 258. These numbers fluctuate quite frequently as Florida and Ohio vacillates between “Barely Kerry” and “Barely Bush.”

2) Professor Pollkatz [3]

The good prof has a terrific, meticulous scatter chart of ALL the polling data; Its never the single data point, and always the trend that matters most.

Here’s a recent example:

Click for larger graphic
pollkatzmainGRAPHICS_8911_image001 [4]
graphic courtesy of pollkatz [5]

See also the Professor’s analysis of which pollsters have the greatest “Fudge Factors [6]

3) Polling Report [7]: bills itself as “an independent, nonpartisan resource on trends in American public opinion.” I think thats a good description. There’s a wealth of data here that is simply very accessable and quite usable.

Click for larger graphic
FOXfav [8]
graphic courtesy of Polling Report [7]

Be sure to check out their National Barometer Trend Lines [9] also.

4) Real Clear Politics [10]

How could I forget RCP? Their list of all the polls out there provides a numerical snapshot (compared with Pollkatz’s graphical view) of the race. Terrific resource.

Click for larger graphic
rcp_polls [11]
Graphic courtesy of Real Clear Politics [10]

There are only two mainstream media sites included here: The Washington Post [12], and the Wall Street Journal [13].

5) The Washington Post [14] has a permanent link that tracks a variety of issues, as well as providing detailed data [15] of their methodology.

Click for larger graphic
chartingCandidates_top8 [16]
Graphic courtesy of The Washington Post [12]

See also this link [17] for their recent graph.

6) The WSJ [18] gets included, despite having a not quite permanent link. They offer terrific perspectives and charts on the Battleground Swing States:

Click for larger graphic
200_infobattleground040802map [19]
Graphic courtesy of WSJ [20]

There’s some more commentary on the post convention Journal report here [21].

Sources:
electoral vote.com [1]

http://electoral-vote.com/

Professor Pollkatz [3]

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/

Polling Report [7]

http://www.pollingreport.com/

Washington Post [14]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

WSJ: Battlegrounds States Poll [18] – August 2, 2004

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-1006print.html


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2004/08/presidential-polling-data-resources/

URLs in this post:

[1] electoral vote.com: http://electoral-vote.com/

[2] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/ev_aug06.html

[3] Professor Pollkatz: http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/

[4] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/pollkatzmainGRAPHICS_8911_image001.html

[5] pollkatz: http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/pollkatzmainGRAPHICS_8911_image001.gif

[6] Fudge Factors: http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/bushindexprobushtable.htm

[7] Polling Report: http://www.pollingreport.com/

[8] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/FOXfav.html

[9] National Barometer Trend Lines: http://www.pollingreport.com/national.htm

[10] Real Clear Politics: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

[11] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/rcp_polls.html

[12] Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

[13] Wall Street Journal: http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info battleground04-0802print.html

[14] The Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

[15] detailed data: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp srv/politics/polls/trend_080104.html

[16] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/chartingCandidates_top8.html

[17] link: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/08/washington_post.html

[18] WSJ: http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-1006print.html

[19] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/200_infobattleground040802map.html

[20] WSJ: http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info battleground04-0802print.html

[21] here: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/08/projected_elect.html

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