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Projected Electoral College Vote: Swing States, 8/23/04

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On August 23, 2004 @ 5:00 pm In Politics | Comments Disabled

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click for larger chart
info-battleground04-0823map [1]
Chart courtesy of WSJ [2]

Yet another fascinating poll, courtesy of WSJ. The recent SBVFT commercials seemed to have had an impact nationally, narrowing the gap between the challenger and the incumbent. According to this most recent WSJ/Zogby poll, conducted Aug. 16-21, there seems to be little impact in the Battleground States. Kerry now leads in 14 states (up from 13 early August). President Bush leads in two states.”

Here’s the Journals take on the polling data’s internals:

The contest for the White House remains tight, according to the latest Zogby Interactive poll of likely voters in 16 battleground states. Although the map is awash in blue, with President Bush leading in only two of the battleground states, down from the three states he held three weeks ago, the results in three-quarters of the states in the survey are within the margin of error — meaning those states remain very hotly contested. Mr. Kerry holds the top spot in 14 of the 16 polled states, up from 13 in the previous poll.

Mr. Bush’s lead is outside the margin of error in one state, but it’s a key one: Ohio. Only two 20th-century presidents have been elected without carrying the Buckeye State, and no Republican has won the White House without Ohio’s support since the party was founded in 1854. Mr. Kerry has top spots outside the margin in three states: Oregon, Washington and electoral-vote rich Pennsylvania.

In addition, several states continue to switch their allegiances. The survey results were closest in Florida and Missouri, where the margins between the two candidates are less than one percentage point. Both states, with their total of 38 electoral votes, have flipped between Messrs. Bush and Kerry more than once, most recently landing in the Democratic column. Similarly, the two states Mr. Bush leads in this poll, Ohio and West Virginia, have been led by both candidates at different points in the poll series. For further analysis of how these results could play out in the Electoral College, view this article [3]

RNC in NY in one week . . .

Sources:
Battlegrounds States Poll – August 23, 2004 [2]

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-0823print.html

Interactive version [4]

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html

Here’s the rest of the excerpt:

The latest poll, conducted Aug. 16-21, comes a few weeks after Mr. Kerry formally received the Democratic nomination. Mr. Bush and Vice President Cheney, as well as Mr. Kerry and running mate John Edwards, crisscrossed the country in early August, as the Democrats built on their convention gains and the Republicans worked to minimize the bounce. Mr. Bush hopes to get a boost from the GOP convention, to be held in New York Aug. 30-Sept. 2.

Ralph Nader, whose supporters are continuing to angle for ballot positions, received the backing of less than 1% of voters surveyed in most states, with his strongest showing by far coming in Nevada, at 2.3%. Nevada elections officials have confirmed he will be on the ballot in the state, but his presence or absence doesn’t seem to be making a difference: Mr. Kerry drew 47.9% without Mr. Nader as an option in the recent poll, and 47.7% with him included.


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2004/08/projected-electoral-college-vote-swing-states-82304/

URLs in this post:

[1] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/info-battleground04-0823map.html

[2] WSJ: http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-0823print.html

[3] article: http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-an0802.html

[4] Interactive version: http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html

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