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Bush’s Lead Narrowing In Post-Convention Polls

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On September 17, 2004 @ 4:35 pm In Politics | Comments Disabled

President Bush continues to lead John Kerry in most polls released since the Republican National Convention, but his bounce seems to be fading somewhat.

In fact, in the two most recent surveys, taken by Harris Interactive and Investor’s Business Daily, Mr. Kerry leads or is tied with Mr. Bush. The two major newsweeklies released their second post-convention polls earlier this week, and while Mr. Bush maintained his advantage of 10 percentage points in the Time poll, his lead narrowed to six percentage points in a reading from Newsweek.

Mr. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney also lost ground to Mr. Kerry and his running mate, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, in a new Zogby poll, which they only led by four percentage points, but the pair had a nine-point advantage in AP-Ipsos survey.

Note the progression in polling data from the RNC to the present . . .

Harris poll

Bush Cheney         47
Kerry-Edwards       48
Nader Camejo         2
Not Sure/Refused     3

Sept. 9-13, 2004. 867 likely voters
nationwide.
Margin of error +/- 4 percentage points.


Investor’s Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll

Bush Cheney       46
Kerry-Edwards     46
Nader-Camejo       3
Not Sure           5

Sept. 7-12, 2004. 674 likely voters
nationwide.
Margin of error +/- 3.5 percentage points.


Newsweek poll

Bush Cheney        49
Kerry-Edwards      43
Nader-Camejo        2
Other/Undecided     6

Sept. 9-10, 2004. 1,003 registered voters
nationwide.
Margin of error +/- 4 percentage points.


Zogby America poll

Bush Cheney       46
Kerry-Edwards     42
Nader-Camejo       2
Other/Unsure      10

Sept. 8-9, 2004. 1,018 likely voters nationwide.
Margin of error +/- 3.1 percentage points.


Time poll

Bush Cheney       52
Kerry-Edwards     42
Nader-Camejo       3
Unsure             4

Sept. 7-9, 2004. 857 likely voters
nationwide.
Margin of error +/- 4 percentage points.


Associated Press/Ipsos poll

Bush Cheney       52
Kerry-Edwards     43
Nader-Camejo       2
Other/None/Unsure  3

Sept. 7-9, 2004. 800 likely voters nationwide.
Margin of error +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Source: the polls; PollingReport.com

Sources:
Bush’s Lead Narrowing In Post-Convention Polls [1]
September 16, 2004 3:27 p.m.

http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB108792552424744155,00.html


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