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Chart of the Week: Inflation Predictor Model

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On September 21, 2004 @ 12:01 pm In Finance | Comments Disabled

Technimentals [1] inflation model has been shifting higher for 2 years, mostly on the heels of escalating energy prices. Most of its commodity components have risen, while retail sales have gone stagnant, as the consumer appears weakened.

Inflation Predictor Model
click for larger chart
Inflation_prediction_1 [2]
Source: Technimentals [3]

Average Hourly Earnings, which have increased on a Year-over-year basis, still lags behind “normal” wage growth at this stage of a recovery.

Random Items:
Not your typical recovery [4]
Beaten-down brokerages [5]
Dow Transports waiting for the Industrials [6]
The Myth of Negative Sentiment [7]
Eleven Rules for Better Understanding the Media [8]
Cold Fusion: Cheap Nuclear Weapons? [9]

Quote of the Day:
“All the features and achievements of modern civilization are, directly or indirectly, the products of the capitalist process.”
-Joseph A. Schumpeter [10] (1883-1950)


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2004/09/chart-of-the-week-inflation-predictor-model/

URLs in this post:

[1] Technimentals: http://www.redtechresearch.com/cgi-bin/mesh/home

[2] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/inflation_prediction_1.jpg

[3] Technimentals: http://www.redtechresearch.com/cgi-bin/mesh/Home

[4] Not your typical recovery: http://www.boston.com/business/personalfinance/articles/2004/09/19/not_your_typical_recovery/

[5] Beaten-down brokerages: http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/16/markets/bank_walkup/index.htm

[6] Dow Transports waiting for the Industrials: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB109546969718421276.html

[7] The Myth of Negative Sentiment: http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&CFID=3043405&CFTOKEN=91152662&category=Market%20Commentary&newsletterid=1136&menugroup=Home

[8] Eleven Rules for Better Understanding the Media: http://media.guardian.co.uk/site/story/0,14173,1308492,00.html

[9] Cold Fusion: Cheap Nuclear Weapons?: http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/research/2004/8/dangerous_science/

[10] Joseph A. Schumpeter: http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Schumpeter.html

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