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Where are all the Political Cheerleaders today?

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On September 22, 2004 @ 4:08 pm In Politics | Comments Disabled


The market got creamed today. Dow off triple digits, Nasdaq down almost 2%, S&P500 rocked.

So where are all the Political Cheerleaders? Where are all the people claiming the rally from August 13th to Spetmber 14th made the incumbent a lock?

Today is a perfect example why I find the connection between polling data and the markets so utterly tenuous: For those who mistakenly insist that the market is a political polling device — and not an economic discounting mechanism — pray tell: What does today’s market action mean for your candidate or his opponent? Obviously, it means doom for (insert your least favorite candidate here).

For all the idiots who think the market is predicting politics, this new excerpt is for you:

“Today’s market action indicates that Bob Yuldock, candidate for dog catcher, is inevitiably heading for double-digit defeat. Furthermore, the action in the bond market, where the 10 year broke below a 4% yield, unequivocally concludes that his wife is fat and his kids are ugly.

In other news . . . ”

It bears repeating: Your taxes are going higher, regardless of who wins on Nov. 2. Oil will be expensive. GDP will be modest. While different sectors may do better or worse under each candidate, Greenspan will still be Fed Chief. That matters a whole lot more than who is sitting in the Oval Office…

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