For those of you who would like a simple thesis for predicting the outcome of the election – one that is both highly correlated and has a strong causative element – we suggest the chart below, courtesy of DePaul University economics Professor Stuart Eugene Thiel. The professor plotted the weekly US gasoline prices (inverted) versus a Presidential Index. As the chart reveals, gasoline prices are coincident indicators to the incumbent’s approval rating.
Gasoline $ versus Incumbent Approval Ratings
click for larger chart
We are a nation of drivers. “Pump pain” erodes consumer’s confidence, reduces discretionary spending, and crimps family budgets. As a predictive factor in the Presidential election, the higher gasoline prices are, the greater the negative impact it is likely to have for the incumbent.
A 100-year bear market?
The Long Tail
After Iraq, Iran?
Target Iran – Air Strikes
Why Bush and Kerry are Wrong on Health Care
Seymour Hersh spills his guts
Presidential Polling Data Resources
Quote of the Day:
“With enough inside information and a million dollars, you can go broke in a year.
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.