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Chart of the Week: Gasoline $ versus Incumbent Approval Ratings
Posted By Barry Ritholtz On October 15, 2004 @ 11:55 am In Finance | Comments Disabled
For those of you who would like a simple thesis for predicting the outcome of the election – one that is both highly correlated and has a strong causative element – we suggest the chart below, courtesy of DePaul University economics Professor Stuart Eugene Thiel. The professor plotted the weekly US gasoline prices (inverted) versus a Presidential Index. As the chart reveals, gasoline prices are coincident indicators to the incumbent’s approval rating.
Gasoline $ versus Incumbent Approval Ratings
click for larger chart
Source: Pollkatz.homestead.com 
We are a nation of drivers. “Pump pain” erodes consumer’s confidence, reduces discretionary spending, and crimps family budgets. As a predictive factor in the Presidential election, the higher gasoline prices are, the greater the negative impact it is likely to have for the incumbent.
A 100-year bear market? 
The Long Tail 
After Iraq, Iran? 
Target Iran – Air Strikes 
Why Bush and Kerry are Wrong on Health Care 
Seymour Hersh spills his guts 
Presidential Polling Data Resources 
Quote of the Day:
“With enough inside information and a million dollars, you can go broke in a year.
Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog
URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2004/10/chart-of-the-week-gasoline-versus-incumbent-approval-ratings/
URLs in this post:
 Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/newbushindex_28670_image001.gif
 Pollkatz.homestead.com: http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/NEWBUSHINDEX_28670_image001.gif
 A 100-year bear market?: http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B22FAA4CB%2D5C51%2D4009%2DB53F%2D8CC626BD269D%7D&siteid=mktw
 The Long Tail: http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.10/tail.html
 After Iraq, Iran?: http://fbc.binghamton.edu/146en.htm
 Target Iran – Air Strikes: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-strikes.htm
 Why Bush and Kerry are Wrong on Health Care: http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/1051.cfm
 Seymour Hersh spills his guts: http://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2004/10/11_hersh.shtml
 Presidential Polling Data Resources: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/08/presidential_po.html
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