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Presidential Approval and Gasoline Prices
Posted By Barry Ritholtz On October 14, 2004 @ 8:58 am In Politics | Comments Disabled
We have previously dismissed suggestions that market performance  rises and falls in response to either candidates polling numbers. My conclusion was that the same underlying factors were impacting both the election race and the market . This was due to the all too common analyst practice of confusing “Cause & Effect” 
Now we see a diffferent take which may actually have some resonance: The variation of this theme is comparing the Incumbent’s polled approval ratings with the price consumers’ pay for Gasoline. (via Professor Pollkatz )
click for larger chart
Graphic courtesy Prof PollKatz 
There seems to be a fairly high correlation between the two, with perhaps a short lag. In these issues, the question is always: “What is the correlation, and is there a causative factor?”
In the rpesent case, the expectation of an incumbent getting blamed for high energy prices passes the sniff test.
Incidentally, the good Prof has a rather elegant solution to the issue of bad or biased polling: He maintains a “Pool of polls ,” with every poll result simultaneously represented. It very cleverly solves a host of problems.
Lastly, for a host of polling details, I put together a full list of Presidential Polling Data Resources .
Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog
URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2004/10/presidential-approval-and-gasoline-prices/
URLs in this post:
 market performance: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/07/is_the_market_r.html
 election race and the market: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/07/confusing_polit.html
 confusing “Cause & Effect”: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/07/confusing_cause.html
 Professor Pollkatz: http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/
 Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/newbushindex_28670_image001.gif
 Prof PollKatz: http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/NEWBUSHINDEX_28670_image001.gif
 Pool of polls: http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/pollkatzmainGRAPHICS_8911_image001.gif
 Presidential Polling Data Resources: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/08/presidential_po.html
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