Yet another flaw of these futures markets: In addition to the basic premise being faulty (that Markets predict the future), and the infintesmal amount of money at risk, there’s another basic problem with them: They are lagging indicators.

This is likely due to their over-reliance on polls, which tell you what a group of people said 3-5 days ago (or longer). Hardly the source of wisdom about the future . . .

click for larger chart
Pres_futures_101204

via Iowa Electronic Markets

Category: Politics

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

One Response to “Presidential futures as a lagging indicator”

  1. BOPnews says:

    Presidential futures as a lagging indicator

    Yet another flaw of these futures: In addition to the basic premise being faulty (that Markets predict the future), and the infintesmal amount of money at risk, there’s another basic problem with them: They are lagging indicators. This is likely…