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Presidential futures as a lagging indicator
Posted By Barry Ritholtz On October 12, 2004 @ 2:04 pm In Politics | Comments Disabled
Yet another flaw of these futures markets: In addition to the basic premise being faulty  (that Markets predict the future), and the infintesmal amount of money at risk, there’s another basic problem with them: They are lagging indicators.
This is likely due to their over-reliance on polls, which tell you what a group of people said 3-5 days ago (or longer). Hardly the source of wisdom about the future . . .
via Iowa Electronic Markets 
Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog
URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2004/10/presidential-futures-as-a-lagging-indicator/
URLs in this post:
 basic premise being faulty: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/10/presidential_fu.html
 Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/pres_futures_101204.jpg
 Iowa Electronic Markets: http://126.96.36.199/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm
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