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Chart of the Week: The 10 day moving put/call ratio hit
Posted By Barry Ritholtz On November 18, 2004 @ 11:11 am In Markets | Comments Disabled
Several indicators suggest we are somewhat overdue for a pullback.
The 10 day moving put/call ratio hit its lowest level in over a year; Other indicators we track all suggest that the broad post-election enthusiasm has reached a short term peak; That simply implies that the present overbought condition (and somewhat complacent sentiment) needs a little backing and filling to cool the fires down.
Several other indicators warrant caution here: The Arms index (10 day MA) is at 0.96, the VIX is a 13.25, AAII sentiment is near 60%.
None of these are fatal to the advance, they merely suggest a pause beginning sometime over the next 10 days would be well warranted.
All of the factors we mentioned previously — an underinvested hedge fund community, seasonality, cash on the sidelines and mutual fund performance anxiety — suggest that the retracement will be mild and relatively short in duration.
Put Call Ratio, 10 Day Moving Avg (click for larger chart)
Source: Redwood Technimentals
What’s Behind Edward C. Prescott’s Nobel Prize? 
Alleged Microsoft Cover-Up 
TiVo Will No Longer Skip Past Advertisers 
US Finds Possible Mad Cow Case in Inconclusive Test 
ETF Investors Going for Gold 
Humans Were Born to Run  (dogs, horses, hyenas too)
Quote of the Day
"You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today."
~ Abraham Lincoln 
Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog
URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2004/11/chart-of-the-week-the-10-day-moving-putcall-ratio-hit/
URLs in this post:
 Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/10_day_moving_avg_put_call_ratio.jpg
 What’s Behind Edward C. Prescott’s Nobel Prize?: http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/index.cfm?fa=printArticle&ID=1082
 Alleged Microsoft Cover-Up: http://www.internetnews.com/ent-news/print.php/3437251
 TiVo Will No Longer Skip Past Advertisers : http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-et-tivo17nov17,0,927837.story?coll=la-home-headline
 US Finds Possible Mad Cow Case in Inconclusive Test: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a6GYB9J90RJ0&refer=us
 ETF Investors Going for Gold: http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/funds/gregggreenberg/10195123.html
 Humans Were Born to Run: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/11/1117_041117_running_humans.html
 Abraham Lincoln: http://www.whitehouse.gov/history/presidents/al16.html
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