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Last November (2003) I participated in Business Week’s annual market predictions — despite the fact that I find forecasting to be folly. Where the markets are 12 months from now is little more than a guess.

Hey, I’ll play along: My prediction was that the 2003 rally would have sufficient momentum to carry it into the 2nd Quarter of 2004 — peaking at Dow 11,100 — at which point it would run out of steam and sell off. I was one of only 3 forecasters (out of 65) who picked Energy as my favorite sector. My 12 month predictions were for Dow 10,403, the S&P500 at 1,150 and Nasdaq 2,200.

Since then, I hadn’t really thought about the contest, except to rue not making my second choice stock — Apple — as my best pick. Oh, well.

So you might imagine my shock when a friend (an investment strategist at another firm) called me yesterday to tell me I won the contest. Based on yesterday’s closing data — Dow 10,428, SPX 1,174, and Nasdaq  2,097 — my forecasts were off by 0.24%, 2.1% and 4.6%.

Wow, who da thunk it! Power, riches, fame — all will be mine! [Bwaahoohaahaa!]

Only they won’t. Turns out he’s wrong — the contest runs til next Friday (December 10) — at which point the Market, now in sync with my forecasts by the merest of coincidences, will have moved away from my present, prescient predictions.

It was fun while it lasted . . . 

Category: Markets, Media

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

One Response to “Business Week Annual Predictions”

  1. 张家界 says:

    Very good Thank author this article is quite good!