Here’s an excerpt:
"The bottom line is that the 2004 rally stole some gains from 2005. We got way ahead of ourselves last month, and the past few weeks have been a process of working off that excess bullishness. Today could quite possibly be the denouement of that process.
These factors — plus too much salivation over the impact of Social Security money (for the fees but more importantly for the rich inflow of funds) and its positive impact on the market — should be heartening to the bulls.
The next leg up can begin once this consolidation runs its course. I’m looking for 1166 on the S&P, 10,370 on the Dow and a possible drop to 1975 on the Nasdaq. I am advising clients to begin scaling into long positions as we approach those levels. Scaling in avoids "picking a point," which is somewhat random. Deploying all your capital at once is a win-lose proposition. Scaling allows you to be wrong or early, just not fatally so. So we scale into the market in stages. By doing this, I try to capture much of the upside, but with as little risk as possible."
Note that this is a shorter term (3 – 6 months) forecast; For a longer term (and rather bearish) perspective, see our 2005 Market Forecast
UPDATE: JANUARY 21, 2005 6:31 AM
Real Money has made the full article available at Yahoo!
I like when they do that . . . Time sensitive Information shoujld be freed up on a delayed basis.
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.