Leading Economic Indicators increased m/m 0.1% in February
after negative numbers in January, October, September, August, and July. Since
these are leading indicators, they point to a slowing beginning starting around
February. Half of the 10 index components were up this month. which compares to
3 in January, 5 in December, 7 in November, 2 in October, 4 in September, 4 in
August, and 3 in July.

Leading Indicators Trend Downwards
click for larger chart

Source: MFR

Prior economic forecasts by Wall Street have been as high as
4.5-5% (annualized real GDP growth). The recent LEI point to weak GDP growth.


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Category: Economy, Markets

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2 Responses to “Chart of the Week: Leading Indicators Trend Downwards”

  1. marku says:

    Odd, quite a divergence from ECRI, who forecasts an aceeleration in the near (6mos) term.

  2. spencer says:

    Across the board you are seeing this conflict with economists and the consensus expecting good growth while various leading indicator approaches are projecting a weaker economy.