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New Column up at Real Money (03/23/05)

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On March 23, 2005 @ 4:24 pm In Media | Comments Disabled


My latest Street.com column, "Falling Oil Sets Trap [1]," is up at at the free site; It is loosely based upon two prior posts from last week: 

Spring Forward, or Fall Back? [2]

Oil Top Sets up Next (Last?) Market Leg Up [2]

Here’s an excerpt:

"Having mulled over a variety of possible outcomes with oil and its impact on
equity markets, I cannot shake one troubling scenario that I call the "oil
trap." It keeps coming up as I consider various crude price moves. What is so
dastardly about the trap is that it sets up both bulls and bears for heartache.

Unfortunately, I consider it a very high-possibility scenario.

As someone who has been bullish on oil since December 2003 — and mentioned a
$57 target here [3] in
late-September 2004 — my expectations have been met, even exceeded. I am now
comfortable stating my expectations of an intermediate-term oil top between $57
and $59; Tuesday afternoon, crude was recently down $1.46 cents at $56 per

I expect the stock market’s response to a pullback from these levels to be
positive, but short-lived."

As of now, the intermediate top [2]call we made in Oil last week (at $57) is looking pretty decent . . .


Falling Oil Sets Trap [1]
Barry Ritholtz
RealMoney.com 3/23/2005 12:02 PM EST

Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2005/03/new-column-up-at-real-money-032305/

URLs in this post:

[1] "Falling Oil Sets Trap: http://www.thestreet.com/_rms/comment/barryritholtz/10214526.html

[2] Spring Forward, or Fall Back?: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/03/oil_top_sets_up.html

[3] here: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/barryritholtz/10185083.html

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