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A Few Interesting Things

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On April 10, 2005 @ 8:03 pm In Economy,Film,Music,Psychology | Comments Disabled

A few follow ups to this week’s action:

1) Check out Rev Shark’s comments about Sentiment [1].
He’s right, of course — one needs to look at what people are doing, rather than what they are saying. The TSCM Bullish/Bearish tickers just
struck me as kinda funny — all green as the market collapsed.

I’ve done a lot of work on Sentiment of the years. If you want to see a full discussion on Contrary Indicators [2], then have a look at this research piece from 2003.

2) In early March, we discussed The Mystery of the Awful Economists [3]. Well, the dismal set is at it again. According to the WSJ [4], it turns out their forecasting on how high Oil can go before it causes a recession is no better than their Non Farm payroll predictions. (If you don’t have WSJ access, you can see my discussion here [5]).

3) Cody Willard and I frequently discuss Technology and Music/Film/TV issues (recall our P2P  downloading debate [6] a few months ago).  Although we disagree on P2P, I enjoyed Cody’s take on the changes coming to Video; See Unbundling Content Will Prove a Net Joy [7] and Video Revolution Won’t Be Televised [8].

4) On a related note, the Grokster vs MGM case is expected to turn on a prior technology versus copyright case known as Sony betamax. The key is whether there are "substantial non-infringing uses."  The smart money is betting the recording industry is going to lose on that basis, so a new argument is developing against P2P: I think its a phony Moral debate [9].

5) I-P-No:  I’ve spoken to several syndicate people, and I cannot figure out who plans to buy into the Warner Brothers Music Group IPO. The WSJ had a scathing article [10] noting that only "$7 million of the planned $750 million IPO will be put toward Warner Music’s own operation." Meanwhile, insiders are cashing out to the tune of $329.4 million in cash. 

That stinks. And that’s before we even discuss what a mess the recording industry is in. Riddle me this Batman: Who on earth plans on buying into this mess?

6) Lastly, when we compare the pricing strategies of the Film versus Music Industries, we learn some interesting things. It turns out that film people have a better understanding of economics than do music people:  Hence, Dynamic Pricing Strategies of DVDs versus CDs [11]


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2005/04/a-few-interesting-things/

URLs in this post:

[1] Sentiment: http://www.thestreet.com/p/dps/td/tradingdiary2.html#entryId10216742

[2] Contrary Indicators: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2003/09/contrary_indica.html

[3] The Mystery of the Awful Economists: http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/rmoney/barryritholtz/10211333.html

[4] WSJ: http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB111270255444198252,00.html

[5] here: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/04/mystery_of_the_.html

[6] downloading debate: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/02/debate_on_downl.html

[7] Unbundling Content Will Prove a Net Joy: http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/rmoney/theteleconomistrm/10216570.html

[8] Video Revolution Won’t Be Televised: http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/rmoney/theteleconomistrm/10216154.html

[9] phony Moral debate: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/04/new_arguments_a.html

[10] scathing article: http://online.wsj.com/article_print/0,,SB111291599889001420,00.html

[11] Dynamic Pricing Strategies of DVDs versus CDs: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/03/dynamic_pricing.html

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