I’m listening to CNBC’s discussion of today’s sell off, and I am astonished to learn that there is Inflation and a Slowing Economy!
Of course, those topics have been discussed in these pages for nearly a year now. The issue with these macro-economic concerns is ALWAYS one of timing. Why? You cannot trade off of macro-economics unless you have a v e r y long time horizon. It takes months, quarters and sometimes years for economic issues to work their way thru to the kinda-sorta-eventually-mostly efficient markets. Thats why mating technicals to macro-economics gives you a glimpse into both the longer and shorter term events.
As to today’s issues: I hate to be blunt, but if on April 20, 2005, you are first discovering that this economy has inflationary pressure – more than 2 years after the CRB rally began — then Lucy, you have some splainin’ to do.
Just discover GDP has been slowing? (duh) Follow the numbers: Q3 ’03=7.4% (originally reported as almost 9%), Q4 ’03 4.2% (orig 6+%), then 2004 Q1-4 data: 4.5, 3.3, 4.0, 3.8.
I plan on addressing the problems investors face when trying to balance these competing, and often contradictory, time frame issues.
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.