Much has been made of the link between the surge in commodity prices in recent years and the explosive growth in Chinese demand. The attached graph of that nation’s value-added industrial output versus the monthly closing price of oil and copper shows just how synchronized the relationship has become.

click for a larger chart

Chinacom_2

Chart courtesy of Michael Panzner

Category: Commodities, Economy

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

4 Responses to “China Syndrome?”

  1. spencer says:

    The CRB index of industrial commodity prices has always been the single best leading indicator of crude oil prices. Of course, this would support the argument that rising oil prices are just one way inflationary pressures show up and that there is nothing special about oil except it plays a much larger role in the economy then other commodies.

  2. John says:

    Which begs the question- if the U.S. economy rolls over and the consumer stops buying all those Chinese products at WMT (didn’t they just break to a 4 year low?) will we see a cyclical decline (within the secular bull market) in oil? If so, what level support?

    The stocks aren’t feeling well… Asian flu?

  3. 1) Chinas consumption is slowing.

    http://naybob.blogspot.com/2005/04/oil-and-china.html

    2) As a percentage of world oil consumption, China’s imports are a very small percentage.

    http://naybob.blogspot.com/2005/04/oil-consumption-conundrum.html

    3) China is being blown out of proportion by the media. This is alarmist and for manipulative purposes.

    http://naybob.blogspot.com/2005/04/putting-china-in-perspective.html

  4. DOR says:

    The chart makes the assumption that the data from China are as accurate as that from the US.

    Always a mistake.
    .