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Week in Review

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On May 8, 2005 @ 10:31 pm In Media | Comments Disabled

Here are a few items from earlier this week worth following up on:

• The latest "Apprentice Investor" [1] column is up, and it addresses the issue of why most investors underperform: Human nature often runs counter to successful investing. Its titled “Know Thyself.” [2] 

• The DC Appeals Court struck down the FCC Anti-Piracy tech rules as “over reaching.” Lots of details and links here. [3] 

• How many times have you heard somebody say “When this ___ happens, then the market does this ___ .”   That’s what I call the fallacy of Single Variable Analysis in Market Forecasts [4]. There’s more details at the link above, as well as an interesting discussion in the comments.

• Comic relief helps during a crazy week, and I thought this [5] and this [6] were hysterical

• The WSJ’s Steve Liesman asks an interesting question: Is there a Philosophical Shift at Fed? [7] If you do not have WSJ access, than try this one:  Is the Fed Anti-Bubble or Anti-Inflation? [8]

• Finally, a parting thought on the April NFP report, from Merrill Lynch economist Daid Rosenberg (via Barrons [9]):

"David Rosenberg’s take on April jobs was pretty gloomy. Right off the bat, David, who’s Merrill Lynch’s top economist, casts doubt on the seemingly glowing numbers, which were, as it happens, much higher than the Street was forecasting (there’s always a first for everything).

"Do you believe the economy is growing at a 6% annual rate right now?" he asks rhetorically. "Because if you don’t, in my view, there is no way you can believe the strength in today’s nonfarm payroll report."

April’s jobs data, he feels, "vastly overstated economic conditions last month." The gains that supposedly occurred in retail, construction and telecom just don’t square with what has been happening in those sectors. He notes that the economy is undergoing a classic inventory correction and the trend in the leading economic indicator is down.

All of which means, he contends, job additions in the months ahead closer to 130,000 than 170,000. Dementia, shmentia, we’ll just have to postpone being bullish.”

I am trying not to be guilty of my own biases in selective perception and interpretation [2]. Still, its food for thought.

Happy Mother’s day, mom!


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2005/05/week-in-review/

URLs in this post:

[1] "Apprentice Investor": http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/landingpages/apprentice

[2] “Know Thyself.”: http://www.thestreet.com/_tscs/comment/barryritholtz/10221284.html

[3] here.: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/05/_dc_appeals_cou.html

[4] Single Variable Analysis in Market Forecasts: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/05/single_vs_multi.html

[5] this: http://biz.yahoo.com/happyhour/20050420-20050503-20050503.html

[6] this: http://biz.yahoo.com/happyhour/20050421-20050504-20050504.html

[7] Is there a Philosophical Shift at Fed?: http://online.wsj.com/article/1,,SB111469516252319496,00.html

[8] Is the Fed Anti-Bubble or Anti-Inflation?: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/05/antibubble_or_a.html

[9] Barrons: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB111542268857427309.html

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