You may recall that I previously mentioned Chris Masse’s informative Prediction Markets Vortal.

Chris does alot of research into prediction markets, and has assembled an awesome collection of data and links at his meta-page.  If you want more info on the subject, its a good place to start.

Chris and I have been having a debate about the efficacy of prediction markets; He was nice enough to make some informative comments about the Michael Jackson verdict, as well as sending us along another chart:

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Announcement stating P. Purcell’s MWD resignation on/before 30 June 2005
click for larger chart

Chart111832388363612478
via Intrade

Let me add that although neither of these two outcomes support Chris’ views, he did not hesitate to pass along the info. That’s the sign of a scholar, who’s interest lies in furthering the debate in order to determine the workings of market mechanism — as well as a gentleman. 

I want to thank him for the pointer to the Purcell chart and for being such a good sport about this. (And how could it be anything but French Champagne?).

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

2 Responses to “Purcell & Prediction Markets”

  1. Hello Barry Ritholtz,

    When it comes to assessing whether some official will quit under pressure, it is the second time that prediction markets fail us. On the link that I provide above, you will find the graph of the George Tenet futures market —a miss.

    We, guys in the field, should reflect on that. I will soon.

    Best regards,

    Chris. F. Masse

  2. Why Prediction Markets Fail

    Over the years, I have been critical of prediction and futures markets. In particular, the specific ways certain parties misuse them (i.e., politics). However, I am a big believer that markets can generate valuable economic and investing data that can …