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Purcell & Prediction Markets

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On June 13, 2005 @ 9:24 pm In Markets | Comments Disabled

You may recall that I previously [1] mentioned Chris Masse’s informative Prediction Markets Vortal [2].

Chris does alot of research into prediction markets, and has assembled an awesome collection of data and links at his meta-page [2].  If you want more info on the subject, its a good place to start.

Chris and I have been having a debate about the efficacy of prediction markets; He was nice enough to make some informative comments [3] about the Michael Jackson verdict, as well as sending us along another chart:

>
Announcement stating P. Purcell’s MWD resignation on/before 30 June 2005
click for larger chart

Chart111832388363612478 [4]
via Intrade [5]

Let me add that although neither of these two outcomes support Chris’ views, he did not hesitate to pass along the info. That’s the sign of a scholar, who’s interest lies in furthering the debate in order to determine the workings of market mechanism — as well as a gentleman. 

I want to thank him for the pointer to the Purcell chart and for being such a good sport about this. (And how could it be anything but French Champagne?).


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2005/06/purcell-prediction-markets/

URLs in this post:

[1] previously: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/05/a_few_words_on_.html

[2] Vortal: http://www.chrisfmasse.com/

[3] informative comments: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/06/the_prediction_.html#comments

[4] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/chart111832388363612478.png

[5] Intrade: http://api.tradesports.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=226323

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