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The Prediction Markets Chalk Another One Up!
Posted By Barry Ritholtz On June 13, 2005 @ 5:33 pm In Markets,Psychology | Comments Disabled
Source: InTrade 
On average, the Alcohol issue was an over 50% likelihood for nearly the entire length of the contract, but briefly dropped towards 20% for a few weeks last month.
Source: InTrade 
The Lewd issue started out at 40%, spend almost a year near 60%, bottomed at 35% before climbing back towards 60%.
Okay, Chris  — before I say anything else, I will wait for your deconstruction of this — where and how did it go wrong, and why?
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URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2005/06/the-prediction-markets-chalk-another-one-up/
URLs in this post:
 risk: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/05/a_few_words_on_.html
 starting: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/01/iowa_and_predec.html
 another: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2003/08/terrorism_futur.html
 controversy: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/10/presidential_fu.html
 InTrade: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/searchPageBuilder.jsp?op=search&searchstr=michael%20jackson#
 Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/jackson_intoxc.jpg
 InTrade: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=74442&z=1118698644890
 Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/jackson_lewd.jpg
 InTrade: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=74441&z=1118698870934
 Chris: http://www.chrisfmasse.com/2/
 Daily Show: http://movies.crooksandliars.com/The_Daily_Show_Jackson_Verdict.mov
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