The Prediction Markets Chalk Another One Up!
Posted By Barry Ritholtz On June 13, 2005 @ 5:33 pm In Markets,Psychology | Comments Disabled
At the risk [1] of starting [2] up another [3] controversy [4], I must point out that the InTrade [5] prediction market got this about as wrong as you possibly could:
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Jackson-Guilty of AT LEAST 1 of 2 counts of administering an intoxicating agent to a minor
click for larger chart
[6]
Source: InTrade [7]
On average, the Alcohol issue was an over 50% likelihood for nearly the entire length of the contract, but briefly dropped towards 20% for a few weeks last month.
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Jackson – Guilty of AT LEAST 1 of 7 counts alleging lewd or lascivious acts against a minor
click for larger chart
[8]
Source: InTrade [9]
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The Lewd issue started out at 40%, spend almost a year near 60%, bottomed at 35% before climbing back towards 60%.
Okay, Chris [10] — before I say anything else, I will wait for your deconstruction of this — where and how did it go wrong, and why?
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UPDATE: June 15, 2005 6:26am
Not only did the crowds get it wrong, but as the brilliant Daily Show [11] reveals, the experts did just as poorly. (warning: hysterical video [11])
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Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog
URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2005/06/the-prediction-markets-chalk-another-one-up/
URLs in this post:
[1] risk: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/05/a_few_words_on_.html
[2] starting: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/01/iowa_and_predec.html
[3] another: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2003/08/terrorism_futur.html
[4] controversy: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/10/presidential_fu.html
[5] InTrade: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/searchPageBuilder.jsp?op=search&searchstr=michael%20jackson#
[6] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/jackson_intoxc.jpg
[7] InTrade: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=74442&z=1118698644890
[8] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/jackson_lewd.jpg
[9] InTrade: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=74441&z=1118698870934
[10] Chris: http://www.chrisfmasse.com/2/
[11] Daily Show: http://movies.crooksandliars.com/The_Daily_Show_Jackson_Verdict.mov
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