Several emailers have asked if this week’s Apprenticed Investor column was in response to the March 29th Bear call.

The short answer is no; I’ve been thinking about this issue ever since I was invited to participate in a a major publication’s "Year-in-preview" back in 2003. I proposed doing "counter-programming;" Running a column looking at how poor most forecasters do a year out, dissecting their predicting track records, and more stuff like that.

Their answer was a polite a "Um, no thanks, we sell a lot of advertising in that double issue — but do you want to particpate anyway?"

My answer was "Sure, why not."

The longer answer:  first off, I stand by that March 29th Bear call — it was pretty good. The Dow pulled back to 10,000 (from nearly 10,800) and the Nazz fell from 2020 to 1890, a 6.5% drop.

I’ve had MUCH worse forecasts than that one — this time, we
didn’t go as low as I thought we possiblym might. (10,00 — I was looking for 9800, then possibly 9000). 

Worst case scenario: I was out of the market during an ugly sell off. And since reversing myself a few weeks ago, my entry is net positive.  

If thats my worst call, I can live with it!

Actually, I thought last July 27th’s (04) Buy call was worse (it was way too early) — we
dropped hard another 2 weeks — I only got bailed out by a very
powerfull market surge.

I also said short GOOG at 185 on Power Lunch late March ’05 — but as always, there was an escape hatch — it included the stop loss to cover at 200 and go long.

Its forgiveable to be wrong; Its unforgiveable to STAY wrong . . .

Category: Financial Press

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

2 Responses to “Why Folly?”

  1. Vince1 says:

    Being right or making money, wrote Ned Davis.

    You can make wrong calls and come out a big winner, as was demonstrated by George Soros ;)

  2. Mark T says:

    the idea is to lose the least amount when you are (inevitably) wrong