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Macro Movers for 2H 2005

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On July 6, 2005 @ 2:50 pm In Commodities,Economy,Fixed Income/Interest Rates,Podcast | Comments Disabled

Tscm_1 [1]The Street.com asked for a "Macro Preview" for the second half of the year, and I obliged them with
What to Watch: Macro Movers
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Its a "Big Picture" look at the second half of 2005, and what might be in store for investors froma  macro-economic perspective.

I stake out the rather unremarkable position that, barring
some unforeseen crisis, the same issues that have been driving the
economy (as well as the financial markets) in the first half of the year are likely to continue doing so in second half of the year.

The big four are:

• Energy and Oil
• Inflation/Deflation
• Interest Rates
• Housing

I also look at 5 other problems percolating below the surface. Any of these have the ability to disrupt at some unknown time in the future — whether its the 2nd half or sometime later I haven’t a clue. These are all longer term issues with potentially serious consequences:

-Federal deficits
-Return of the long bond
-Employment
-Trade deficit
-The U.S. dollar

No excerpt — the entire thing is available for free [2].

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Podcast:  2 minute overview on the column:

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here [3]. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.

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Source:

What to Watch: Macro Movers

RealMoney.com, 7/6/2005 9:48 AM EDT
http://www.thestreet.com/comment/barryritholtz/10230921.html


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