One of our commenters today noted the 2 and 3 year yield curve inverted

Here’s what that looks like, intraday:
click for larger chart


Source: Bloomberg


I can’t say I know what this means . . . any idea?

Category: Economy, Fixed Income/Interest Rates

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

3 Responses to “3 and 2 year yield curve inversion”

  1. Joe Loserman says:

    I looked at the fed’s historical yields and this happened in 1999 near the end between the 10 & 20. Nothing
    really changed. It also happened with the prior inversions – a minor inversion occurs.

    Bad stuff seems to hit when the 5 & 10 or 2 & 10 really ivnert and stay that way.

    So we’re getting closer every day.


  2. nate says:

    What do you think will happen to stocks when investment in housing slows down?

    The following URL has input on this. Your perspective would be interesting.

  3. Contrahour says:

    Jason Goepfert at had an interesting analysis of the 2-3 year inversion -

    “There were six 2yr/3yr inversions since that time, and five of them lead to an inversion in the 3month/10year, with an average lead time of 55 trading days. But it wasn’t necessarily a good sell signal for equities…between the time the 2yr/3yr inverted and the time the 3month/10year did so, the S&P 500 showed an average return of +2.0%, with the largest loss being -5.9% and the largest gain +15.5%. So while Wednesday’s yield inversion in the middle of the curve may portend an eventual inversion in the 3month/10year spread, it is not a reason in and of itself to sell stocks here. ”