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PMI, GDP stink up the joint

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On August 31, 2005 @ 11:23 am In Economy | Comments Disabled

The first revision of GDP growth for the
second quarter rose at a (seasonally adjusted) 3.3% annual rate. This was below expectations of 3.4%, and the revised Q1 GDP data of 3.8%. (recall that GDP data for Q1 was revised due to the specious theory that new home prices [1] had dropped for that quarter).

Meanwhile, the Chicago PMI utterly collapsed below the magic 50 level to 49.2 in August, down from 63.5 in July. This was well short of consensus expectations of 61.0, and was the weakest level since April 2003.

Chicago PMI components showing the largest declines were:

new orders (46.5 from 69.6 in July)
production (56.2 from 70.5 in July).
Order backlogs (45.7 from 56.1 in July).

Three of seven PMI components are now below the 50.0 boom/bust line: order backlogs (45.7), new orders (46.5) and supplier deliveries (48.7).


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[1] specious theory that new home prices: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/08/juiced_data_1.html

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