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Are Real Commodity Prices at multi-century Lows?
Posted By Barry Ritholtz On September 3, 2005 @ 2:15 pm In Commodities | Comments Disabled
The graph below, courtesy of BHP Billiton  CEO Chip Goodyear, was compiled from a variety of sources, including the US All Commodities Producer Price Index, US Consumer Price Inflation, US Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States, and the Colonial Times, to 1970.
A small move on the graph represents several decades. According to the graph’s creator, "we find ourselves at a period of time which is, or rather close to it anyway, 2001/2002 when real  commodity  prices  were the lowest they’ve been in the last 200 years which essentially puts them at the lowest price they’ve been in known history.”
click for larger graph Mineweb 
Chart courtesy of IMF 
Notes: Shaded portions denote the boom phase, and unshaded portions the slump phase, of each
commodity-price cycle. A boom (slump) is defined as a sequence of absolute increases (decreases) in the real price of industrial commodities.
Chart courtesy of IMF 
The graph everyone’s talking about 
Mineweb, ’25-AUG-05 11:00
The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability 
PAUL CASHIN and C. JOHN MCDERMOTT
2002 International Monetary Fund
Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog
URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2005/09/are-real-commodity-prices-at-multi-century-lows/
URLs in this post:
 BHP Billiton: http://www.bhpbilliton.com/bb/home/home.jsp
 real: http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/ksgnews/Features/opeds/041505_frankel.htm
 commodity: http://ideas.repec.org/a/imf/imfstp/v49y2002i2p2.html
 prices: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1557754128/thebigpictu09-20
 Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/us_commodity_prices_cpi_adj.jpg
 Mineweb: http://www.mineweb.net/sections/mining_finance/476223.htm
 Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/real_prices_commodities18621999_.jpg
 IMF: http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/staffp/2002/02/pdf/cashin.pdf
 Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/nominal_vs_real_price_18621999_1.jpg
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