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NFP Today

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On September 2, 2005 @ 7:39 am In Economy | Comments Disabled

You know the drill:  Today is the data release for August Non-Farm Payrolls, and I once again am taking the Under. [1]

Consensus expectations are for 190,000, with the range between 110,000 to 235,000.

The Birth/Death adjustment [2] last August was a chunky 123k — so perhaps the Under is a loser this month. Regardless, my econometric modeling is reality based, so regardless of the final BLS data point is — I’m expecting only modest job creaton.

BTW, the BLS is not a case of garbage in/garbage out — its the bias embedded in their processes that turns good data into something less than useful — not their data sources . . .


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URLs in this post:

[1] the Under.: http://www.google.com/search?num=50&hl=en&lr=&c2coff=1&q=site%3Abigpicture.typepad.com+%22the+Under%22&btnG=Search

[2] Birth/Death adjustment: http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

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