I’m mostly out of pocket today (holidays and all that), but a quick look at the papers reveals that the US is still on target for a decaying economy and eventual hard landing:
• Slowing Is Seen in Housing Prices in Hot Markets
sigh . . . old news
• Bankruptcy Filings Soar As Tougher Law Nears http://online.wsj.com/article/SB112839161016359261.html
This one is going to be nasty
• Big S.U.V.’s Lag in Sales, Hindered by Gas Cost http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/automobiles/04auto.html
In September, industrywide sales of large S.U.V.’s were down 43 percent from a year earlier.
(See also: Sales of SUVs Fall Sharply
• Oil Producers Gain Global Clout From Big Windfall http://online.wsj.com/article/SB112838919128959188.html
There’s a security issue, here, as well as an economic one.
• Home Builders’ Stock Sales: Diversifying or Bailing Out? http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/business/04builders.html
A friend observes: Don’t you know why the bigwigs are blowing out in size? Simple: Because they think the stock is gonna’ trade higher.
I have a few words here:
• If housing slumps, how safe are you?
Housing now infects everything
Lastly, PIMco’s Bill Gross opines that "If real housing prices decline in the U.S. in 2006 or 2007, a recession is nearly inevitable."
I am all too well aware of my own biases and selective perception; As of now, this remains a minority viewpoint. By the time it becomes the dominant meme, I will (hopefully) be looking to go long . . .
Have an informed, happy and healthy New Year!
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.