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Fed Spurs on Year End Rally

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On November 23, 2005 @ 8:31 am In Federal Reserve | Comments Disabled

The market’s technical picture has continued to improve.
Rallies have been on decent breadth and improving volume. The Bullish Sentiment
percentage is now over 50% – high, but not excessively so. Seasonal factors
have also arrived just in time, as year-end contributions to tax deferred
accounts have seen healthy inflows. Fund managers eventually put this cash to
work as equity buys.

The biggest negative factor now seems to be overseas
capital flows have been at records recently. These buyers have, in the past, been
reliable contrary indicators.

But the newest factor supporting the year-end rally may be
the Federal Reserve: While they made their obligatory Hawkish Inflation
comments (“Upside inflation risks are the key concern”), the most recent
minutes
reveal
quite a few elements that are intriguing. There seems to be a variety of Fed
voices straining to be heard. Will Fed Chair-elect Bernanke inherit a uniform
Fed, as Greenspan enjoyed? Or, when he takes of the central bank on January
31st, will there be some dissension in the ranks?

Regardless, the Fed Minutes had some bullish implications:

· Future Policy
‘Increasingly Sensitive’ To New Data;

· Outlook
Statement Must Change ‘Before Long’;

· Some Members
Warn Of ‘Going Too Far’ In Tightening;

· US Econ Growth
At ‘Solid Pace’ Despite Hurricanes;

· Gov’t Spending
To Boost Econ Growth Near-Term;

(Source: Dow Jones)

Whether this was just so much pre-holiday jawboning, or a
signal of a significant change in direction, these comments are most definitely
of interest to traders.

Also worth noting: The coordinated approach of other central
bankers: Japan’s Prime Minister has been pressuring the BOJ [1] to hold off on tightening monetary conditions. At the same time, European
Central Bank Governor Jean-Claude Trichet has apparently backed off [2] his
prior implied series of rate hikes. Implied is Euroland monetary policy may be
a “One and Done” approach. This was echoed by ECB governing council member Guy
Quaden: “What we have to do is to take our foot somewhat off the accelerator
pedal. The question is not, for the time being, to step down on the brake
pedal.”

It appears that Central Bankers are coordinating their approach to
global econ-management.

The question for Fed watchers is how Greenspan [3] might set up the Fed for his successor. He could hold off hiking rates in
January, giving Bernanke [4] a chance
to show his inflation fighting chops? Or, will he allow the new Fed Chief to
skip a hike in the March ‘06 meeting, based upon an inflation target?

There
will be plenty of data between now and then.


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2005/11/fed-spurs-on-year-end-rally/

URLs in this post:

[1] BOJ: http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=akn8YS5cd1d0

[2] backed off: http://news.ft.com/cms/s/aa1ea164-5b4a-11da-b221-0000779e2340.html

[3] Greenspan: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/29/AR2005062902841.html

[4] Bernanke: http://www.fortune.com/fortune/print/0,15935,1130695,00.html

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