RealMoney

I have a new column up at Real Money: It is loosely based on a few prior commentaries: Bottoming Process Continues, and Katrina Lowers Year End Expectations.

I go into the technical underpinnings of the present rally, as well as my expectations for where it could go.

But don’t think I have crossed over to join cheerleading squad. Here’s an excerpt from the realistic tail of the column:

"There’s an old saying: I cannot hear what you are saying, because what
you are doing is speaking so loudly. That’s my take on the Federal
Reserve
: If it really believes inflation is so "contained" and "transitory,"
then why is it hell-bent on tightening rates for the rest of our natural lives
or until the next recession, whichever comes first?

The answer, in case you haven’t been paying attention, is the robust
inflation coursing everywhere through our economy, save for wages and personal
income.

Indeed, real wages are actually down 2.3% for the third quarter. Total
compensation costs (wages paid plus benefits) are down 1.5% on an
inflation-adjusted basis. That does not bode well for consumer spending into
2006. This comes when the consumer is running increasingly low on dry powder. As
we noted previously, the consumer is nearly — but not quite — shopped out.

Meanwhile, actual growth — and not the estimated, preliminary Commerce
Department’s GDP data — remains modest.

This helps explain why my bullish posture is short term in nature, and
measured at that."

I requested this gets moved to the free side of TheStreet.com . . .

Source:
Restrained Rally Slowly Emerging
RealMoney.com, 11/2/2005 11:35 AM EST
http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/barryritholtz/10250874.html

Category: Investing, Trading

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

2 Responses to “New Column up at Real Money (11/2/05): Restrained Rally Slowly Emerging”

  1. Dave Singer says:

    What may be the reason for the following:

    Since Jun 04 Fed Funds is up 300 bps…

    The major US Stock indices are essentially flat…

    12 Straight quarter point raises and overall, the market has not gone down…

    Any theories????

  2. spencer says:

    Since June 04 the S&P 500 PE on trailing operating earnings has fallen from about 19 to 17, a change that is not out of line with the change in interest rates and inflation over that period. Monetary policyand rates impact the market through the PE side of the equation. So, roughly the 200 basis point drop in the PE has been offset by the rise in earnings, generating an unchanged market.