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The End of M3 Reporting?

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On November 13, 2005 @ 6:29 pm In Federal Reserve | Comments Disabled

OK already!

This is the unusual research (previously mentioned [1]) under investigation:  The announced end of publication of the M3 monetary aggregate reporting [2].

I already have a request in to the Fed about this, and I will be following up tomorrow. As soon as I have something concrete, I will update the Big Picture.

I didn’t want to discuss this until after I did more research, so as not to get all the Gold Bugs and Tin Foil hat crowd all worked up for what might be no good reason.  Now that the comments have let the cat out of the bag, there was no reason to sit on this any longer.

By the way, there is no reason to look at seasonally adjusted data if your chart covers ALL the seasons — as this multi-decade chart does.<space
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M3 Money Stock Spike
click for larger chart

M3ns_max [3]
Source:  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis [4]

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Funny, without the adjustment, it looks even spikier! Pretty wild, huh?

Here’s what the Fed had to say about it [2]:

Discontinuance of M3

On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate. The Board
will also cease publishing the following components: large-denomination
time deposits, repurchase agreements (RPs), and Eurodollars. The Board
will continue to publish institutional money market mutual funds as a
memorandum item in this release.

Measures of large-denomination time deposits will continue to be
published by the Board in the Flow of Funds Accounts (Z.1 release) on a
quarterly basis and in the H.8 release on a weekly basis (for
commercial banks).

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Oh, and credit where credit is due:  Hat Tip for first identifying this issue (if it actually turns out to be one) is shared by The Prudent Investor [5], Mike Runge and Will Thornton


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2005/11/the-end-of-m3-reporting/

URLs in this post:

[1] mentioned: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/11/12_federal_rese.html

[2] end of publication of the M3 monetary aggregate reporting: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm

[3] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/m3ns_max.png

[4] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M3NS/28/Max

[5] The Prudent Investor: http://prudentinvestor.blogspot.com/2005/11/unpleasant-trend-fed-counters-by.html

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