I find it very interesting that everyone assumed (including yours truly) that in a flat year the last low-volume week of the year will be up. It isn’t. It will cover one more model that I have that was screaming duck since Monday, but after th

Certianly an argument could be made that international money is comming to north america holding down long rates. Maybe good for stocks??

I am looking for economic tipping points ie points at which everyone knew the world of economics had changed. Two of them 50 years apart Oct 29 and Oct 79(Volker shut off money supply)
Two 14 years apart Oct 87 black monday and Sep/Oct 01 (9/11,and Enron etc.)

The charts don’t always show these things but if you where there you know.

Barry M

The overlays are almost scary in their accuracy TO DATE. Doesn’t mean it will continue. But, as a post bubble equity environment, that is really the only true comparative I see in modern times.

Btw, the overlay shows one heck of an equities run if the chart continues mimick post 1929. Not a new high but a time to be invested………..for what it’s worth.

The DJIA is not 10 years into a bear market, and the DJIA has reached no new false top in the current bear market.

While I do believe in momentum effects and patterns, I also do believe a lot of this is random and independent. Looking for historical patterns to predict the the future is valuable and entertaining, yet not always relevant.

My bogey for the future is international. How much product was sold by DJIA companies to foreign countries on credit? (vs. collecting cash at the time of sale) How long does it take foreign countries to pay DJIA for products? Where is the foreign credit risk concentrated for DJIA countries? (Asia, Europe, Latin America)

Peace

The first is how markets do after Bullmarkets end, or post crash. Clearly as yesterdays chart shows, what follows is typically a long refractory period.

If you accept that logic, then you may be wondering where we are in that process, almost 6 years after the Bull stalled.

Are we in 1936? Is this analogous to 1973? Over the past century, we have 3 major Bulls and 32 major Bears to compare to. The post 2000 period is # 4.

So there are very fewe analogous periods –none perfect.

Thanks for your blog I enjoyed it all year.

Thanks to you I read Bull last week, a great read.

I have been looking at the same chart and have us at the end of ’76 based on the 50 and 7 year biblical cycles .

Time will tell.

Thanks again,
Barry M

The DJIA high during Q4 of 1972 was higher than any other previous daily close prior to Q4 of 1972.

This is not true today.

Reasoning by analogy can be dangerous.