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Business Week Forecasts
Posted By Barry Ritholtz On December 22, 2005 @ 8:03 am In Financial Press | Comments Disabled
Well, the new Business Week is out. Its the special year in preview forecast edition . I am participating in it again this year.
You may be wondering why someone who believes that "Forecast is Folly " and has exhorted you to "Be Neither a Bull nor a Bear " ended up as the outlier — I was low man on the totem pole in terms of both US Equity expectations and recommended U.S. Equity exposure — in the survey of 75 strategists, economists and analysts.
I plan on addressing this extensively in the New Year. If you are a regular reader of this site, you should be well aware of what my concerns are. I will lay out the full Bear case (in painful details) the first week of the year, along with the corresponding counter arguments. From these you may draw your own conclusions.
Meanwhile, here’s something for my fellow data freaks out there. I massaged all of the market call data (ever so painfully) into an Excel Spreadsheet — BusinessWeek 2006 Forecasts.xls .
I’d love to see what y’all can do generating studies and charts from the data. As an example, have a look  at what Tim Iacono of TheMessThatGreenspanMade  pulled together from it. I’ll take the most informative and intriguing charts and post them in this space after the holidays.
One emailer asked me "how much confidence do I have" in my market call. Given the philosophical expectations I approach all trading postions with — a specific attitude that I Expect to Be Wrong  — my answer may not surprise you: Not very much.
However, I do have more confidence in my own call (with all expectations that I may be wrong) then that of the very Bullish herd.
The BusinessWeek Market Survey: Where to Invest 
December 26, 2005
The BusinessWeek Market Survey (PDF)
Businessweek market survey 2006.pdf 
2006 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
BusinessWeek 2006.xls 
The Folly of Forecasting 
6/7/2005 1:05 PM EDT
Bull or Bear? Neither 
4/26/2005 7:20 AM EDT
Expect to Be Wrong 
4/5/2005 7:15 AM EDT
Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog
URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2005/12/business-week-forecasts/
URLs in this post:
 Image: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_52/b3965416.htm
 Forecast is Folly: http://www.thestreet.com/_tscana/comment/barryritholtz/10226887.html
 Be Neither a Bull nor a Bear: http://www.thestreet.com/_rms/comment/barryritholtz/10219637.html
 BusinessWeek 2006 Forecasts.xls: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/files/business_week_2006.xls
 have a look: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/12/chart_of_the_we_1.html
 TheMessThatGreenspanMade: http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/
 Expect to Be Wrong: http://www.thestreet.com/comment/barryritholtz/10215965.html
 Businessweek market survey 2006.pdf: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/files/the_businessweek_market_survey.pdf
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