Morningcall128x88

Let’s try this again:

GWBridge and Weather permitting, I am going to be on CNBC’s Morning Call at 10:45am today, discussing all those lovely charts from Cult of the Bear part II with the lovely Liz Claman. It will be interesting to see how those charts come out on TV.

If you want to play the home game and follow along, here are 4 charts we will be discussing:

click for larger charts!

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100 Year Dow
100_year_dow_bull_bear_periods_2


1966-1982 Trading Range

19661982_range_1


S&P500 P/E Multiple Expansion

500_pe


4 Year Presidential Cycle

4_year_us_equity_cycle_1

 

Keep your fingers crossed . . .

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UPDATE January 19, 2005 11:42am

Almost got bumped twice — first by W, then by OBL

I don’t know if the 4th chart showed up, but CNBC seemed to do a good chart with the other 3 . . . 

Category: Media

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

10 Responses to “Media Appearance: CNBC’s Morning Call (1/19/06)”

  1. Ned says:

    Can’t resist a suggestion for a new title for your 100 year Dow chart.

    How Now Brown Dow?!!!!!!!!

    Hope your TV appearance went well.
    FYI–Your Cult of the Bear is now a 3-part link on the Prophet founder’s TA weblog.

  2. BOPnews says:

    Barry making a crash call

    He’s got a series of periodic charts that say that this is they year that the bulls get gored……

  3. Ticker_tape_watcher says:

    Looks like you have some company. Knight research is also forecasting a 20-25% drop this year. Here is the link to their report

    http://www.knight.com/EquityMarkets/pdfs/AnnualForecast.pdf

  4. blue][erring says:

    barry,
    as usual, very smooth. i was pleased to hear you thank liz by name at the end of the segment, i assume you know how very important that is and how much the anchors appreciate that (and notice when, like jack welsh just did, they say a generic “thank you so much”).
    -][

  5. todd says:

    Why is no one commenting on the huge “at the close” transactions yesterday? No one else thought that was just a little bizzare?

    BTW- Barry I know you don’t care about the day to day stuff, but EVERYTHING is going up… what to make of it all?

    energy vs. transports I really don’t understand.

  6. David Silb says:

    Barry, How did it go? I unfortuneately was unable to watch. Did you get attacked, scoffed or rebuffed?

    I once heard that an analyst calling for a Bull market gets all the coverage he wants; a Bear gets nothing and pushed aside as a nut.

    Now we see fundementals pointing to a bear market, it is what it is so I don’t call it “nutty” right to be cautious.

    But it just doesn’t sell copy. “Mr. Hearst, there’s no war war in Cuba.” “Sir you send the pictures I’ll produce the war.”

    Works for TV too. “You provide the Bull and we’ll provide the rally.”

  7. Average Joe says:

    I wasn’t able to catch this, but that historical market P/E graph is really interesting. I’m curious on your take there – is there a good reason why we should be paying higher multiples now, or is the market due for some major correction?

    -AvgJoe

  8. todd says:

    Here’s the answer to my own question in case anyone else was wondering what happened yesterday…

    Nasdaq Glitch Results in Incorrect Quotes
    By MICHAEL J. MARTINEZ, AP Business Writer 42 minutes ago

    NEW YORK – Shares of AMR Corp. closed up 16 cents at $20.55 Thursday. Or were they up $1.84?

    A computer glitch at the Nasdaq Stock Market left erroneous stock price swings on major online financial news Web sites and brokerage sites all day Thursday. While nearly impossible to assess the full extent of the damage, the technical snafu created incorrect price changes for approximately 1,500 stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange and American Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq confirmed.

    According to an e-mail alert sent to Nasdaq customers late Thursday afternoon, a computer glitch occurred at approximately 5:50 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday, when 16,669 transactions involving NYSE- and AMEX-listed stocks that had been made at 9:50 a.m. were reposted to the consolidated list. In many computer systems, those transactions overwrote the final closing price posted earlier that afternoon.

  9. Jason says:

    OK, the crowd here is way above my pay grade, but I don’t understand the bottom part of the fourth graph.

    Does that mean that without inflation, the only way to make real money with a portfolio choice limited only to long/bonds/cash is to sell in the upper parts of the cycle, and be in cash the rest of the time?