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Government Budget Number Crunching

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On February 7, 2006 @ 3:00 pm In Economy,Politics | Comments Disabled

I do Larry Kudlow’s show whenever he asks, and while I am certainly not the
political wonk he is, I do keep track of the budget process. I want to see how the deficit is shrinking or growing, what changes to the tax code might be coming, and which sectors of the economy are getting a spending boost from Uncle Sam.

That’s a lot of stuff to watch — Fortunately, there’s a terrific set of charts today via the online WSJ: Crunching the Numbers [1] (click each for larger graphics).

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Gainers and Losers:
 

A broader view of what’s growing and shrinking in Bush’s 2007 proposal, in budgetary authority

Infobudget06bigpic [2]

Sources: Office of Management and Budget, AP      
*Includes miscellaneous, undistributed offsetting receipts

>
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Receipts and Outlays
A look at how the federal government is counting on bringing in revenue, and how it plans to spend it in fiscal 2007. All figures in billions unless noted.

Infobudget06receipts [3]

Did you know that thee Estat Tax weas such a modest slice?

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Deficits & Taxes

By assuming that federal spending will shrink as a share of the
economy — after five years of increases — the White House projects
the federal budget deficit (left) to drop sharply over the decade.
Separately, with steady reductions in corporate taxes (right),
companies pay a decreasing portion of the taxes Washington collects.

Infobgt05deficit2 [4]

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>
Defense Spending and Health Care

The president’s defense budget (left) includes billions of dollars
of spending to fight unconventional threats like insurgents but defers
the big decisions on countervailing cuts to major weapons systems that
most senior defense officials acknowledge will eventually be necessary.
Spending on health care (right) is projected to continue as a growing
part of the economy.

Infobgt05defhlth [5]

The problem with this chart is that I cannot see how Defense spending reverses that uptrend in a time of terrorism; That’s a dramatic shift that requires some major cold war era weapons systems getting cancelled — a politically unpopular move i n a mid-term election year.

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While the White House requests funding annually, the amounts
Congress appropriates don’t always match. Here’s how several projects
fared over the past few years.

Infobudget06congress [6]

*Program realigned to reflect new initiatives

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Source:
Bush Would Boost Defense, Security In Budget Plan [7]
Social Programs Face Cuts In Proposal for Fiscal 2007; Worries Over Heating Bills
DEBORAH SOLOMON and JOHN D. MCKINNON
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, February 7, 2006; Page A1
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113923342926565990.html

Crunching the Numbers [1]
http://online.wsj.com/documents/info-budget06-02.html

Bush’s Defense Budget Puts Off Cuts to Weapons [8]
GREG JAFFE and JONATHAN KARP
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, February 7, 2006; Page A17
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113923422769866000.html


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/02/government-budget-number-crunching/

URLs in this post:

[1] online WSJ: Crunching the Numbers: http://online.wsj.com/documents/info-budget06-02.html

[2] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/infobudget06bigpic.gif

[3] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/infobudget06receipts.gif

[4] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/infobgt05deficit2.gif

[5] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/infobgt05defhlth.gif

[6] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/infobudget06congress.gif

[7] Bush Would Boost Defense, Security In Budget Plan: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113923342926565990.html

[8] Bush’s Defense Budget Puts Off Cuts to Weapons: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113923422769866000.html

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