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Chart of the Week: First Q 4% Year End Performance

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On March 28, 2006 @ 9:45 am In Markets,Technical Analysis | Comments Disabled

The S&P 500 index is up 4.38% YTD. History suggests when the market’s gain of 4%+ in Q1, it often presages double-digit moves – up or down – in the S&P 500 for the entire year.
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Double Digit Full Year Gains & Losses (1956-2005)

Bigquarter [1]

Source:  Mike Panzner, Rabo [2]
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Since 1956, the market has gained 4% in 27 out of 49 Q1s, or 55% of the time. When that has occurred, the full-year sees a greater-than-10% rise or fall on 20 of 27 occasions (74.07%). Median double-digit gains over 12 months were +25.77%. Median losses were 13.09%.

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Quote of the Day: 

“Behold, my son, with what little wisdom the world is ruled.”
-Count Axel Gustafsson Oxenstierna [10] (1853-1654), from a 1648 letter to his son at the conclusion of the 30 Years War


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/03/chart-of-the-week-first-q-4-year-end-performance/

URLs in this post:

[1] Image: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/bigquarter.png

[2] Mike Panzner, Rabo: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/032124785X/ref=ase_thebigpictu09-20/102-4529470-0078540

[3] At long last, a new home sale slump: http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/24/news/economy/newhome_sales/

[4] Offshoring: The Next Industrial Revolution?: http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060301faessay85209/alan-s-blinder/offshoring-the-next-industrial-revolution.html

[5] M3, R.I.P.: http://www.capitalspectator.com/archives/2006/03/m3_rip.html

[6] Apple vs  Apple over core business: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2105800,00.html

[7] Crushing Small Innovators: http://www.internetnews.com/commentary/article.php/3594146

[8] Argentina’s Floating Icebergs Worry Farmers Who Fear Flooding: http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aEnJGKhyXBkI&refer=news_index

[9] Caricatures of the prophet Muhammad in Danish newspapers: http://blog.newspaperindex.com/2005/12/10/un-to-investigate-jyllands-posten-racism/

[10] Count Axel Gustafsson Oxenstierna: http://www.bartleby.com/65/ox/Oxenstie.html

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