In the 100-year Dow Chart post yesterday, the following issue was raised in comments:
It would be nice to see your "100 Year Chart , DJIA" deflated by
some ”inflation” indicator (either consumer price index or wholesale
price index or earnings index or commodities index or real estate
index), or at least in a logarithmic scale.
Indeed it might be even better to see it overlaid with all those indices, to give a sense of perspective as to available macro trend investment choices…
Thormika Keo took up the challenge: he went to Yale Professor Robert Shiller’s website, downloaded Shiller’s data for the Real S&P500, and overlaid it with our periods for for each bull and bear market.
This is what it looks like:
Inflation Adjusted SPX, 100 years, with Bull Bear Cycles
Adjusting for inflation puts the Bull and Bear periods into even sharper relief. It also shows how totally bubblicious the late 1990s were, and why many strategists and technicians started pulling in their horns in the mid-1990s.
If you want to see this chart in its full 1020 X 554 glory, you can download it here: modifiedshiller.jpg
There is also a CPI adjusted Dogs of the Dow, here.
With this post, we add the sub-topic "Valuation" to our list.
UPDATE JUNE 11, 2006 1:54PM
I am out on a sunny Sunday, doing some gardening, washing the car, when I come into to see a cry coming from the crowd: We want Log charts! We want Log charts!
And logarythmic charts ye shall have:
Inflation Adjusted SPX, 100 years, with Bull Bear Cycles (LOG)
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.