VIX hits 3 year highs

You must be rich the way things are going lately. The next Kudlow appearance you should show up with tons of bling and wads of cash falling out of your pocket to rub it in the permabulls’ faces.

DJIA exactly where it was 12 months ago , $/Euro also , 30-year was 4.65% now 5.10%……. these problems are overseas , and while we get some fallout we’ll weather this a lot better than they ….( Nikkei 17,500 vs. 11000 year ago , etc. …)

The question is when BB goes to 5.25% does the 10 Yr stay under 5% that would be a larger inversion than last winter which was really just a flat curve. How inverted will the curve get?

if bernanke goes to 5.25 the 10year will follow suit. you can take that to the bank.

guess we’ll see what the final “HOUR” brings…..

my favorite quote of the day from a yahoo message board…. “Find a red one that’s coming up for air and shoot it!” LOL

sell the rallies until it doesn’t work anymore. IMO

Get on the LOVE train baby, and turn that frown upside down, LOL. Captain, she’s breakin’ up, I can’t hold her together.

As noted on the next thread, I did much the same today, if perhaps a little more aggressively on closing puts. I’m almost expecting to be wrong, but I am hoping for a shortable bounce here.

Added some biotech longs, too, in addition to the other trades noted there.

Fingers crossed.

http://www.bankstocks.com/article.asp?type=1&id=9881002 an overview of In Expert Political Judgment, Philip Tetlock

Here’s an interesting article regarding the accuracy of experts. It seems timely given all of the expert predictions in the media and other hype outlets. Here’s an excerpt. I think some in the crowd will recognize themselves as foxes.

“Tetlock’s other group was—surprise!—the foxes. The fox’s view of history tends to be the opposite of the hedgehog’s: it is determined by multiple inputs, and is not filtered through a single grand theory. Foxes tend to be somewhat suspicious of grand historicist explanations of events; they prefer to base their analyses on multiple, often contradictory viewpoints. They are much more skeptical of their inputs than hedgehogs are, are much more tentative in their conclusions. They tend to be quicker to change their minds in the face of subsequent developments.

And, Tetlock says, foxes outpredict hedgehogs just about across the board. One reason why, apparently, is that hedgehogs are more prone to standard psychological biases that so regularly skew human judgment. Tetlock’s work indicates hedgehogs had greater hindsight bias than foxes do, for example, and were less willing to update beliefs upon the receipt of new information. They were more overconfident in their views, as well.”