Doug Kass has been running an Entourage themed commentary today:

"Technology remains in a downward trajectory, almost as bad as Aquaman’s
(Vince in "Entourage") sputtering career. Simply stated, tech remains drek
and subject to future
shlock
.

The financials, specifically money center banks, are on the rise like
Turtle’s rap group (Saigon). Nevertheless, I continue to short Financial
Select Sector SPDR
(XLF) on any strength.

The cyclicals remain problematic — like Ari’s new talent management agency
that Beverly D’Angelo is trying to revive! And energy is as sold as Eric ("E")!

The homewreckers continue their ascent of the last week, though like Johnny
Drama and his new movie gig, the sector remains tenuous.

Finally, the consumer staples, despite protestations from many quarters that
they are the place to hide, are getting less respect that Ari’s secretary,
Lloyd."

Over the course of several IMs, I mentioned a few things to Doug (which he agreed with me on):

1) I think the odds of a 1/4 point hike is much higher than people think; I place it at 49%, versus the 18% or so the Fed Fund Futures have on it;

2) As far as the parallel to Entourage, i asked "When do we get the bar brawl with Seth Greens guys?"

Here’s Doug’s write up:

Hey Bernanke, What Up?

"Tomorrow holds more suspense than I think the Fed Funds Futures market suggests.

Today’s action was relatively benign. Tomorrow holds more suspense than I think the Fed Funds Futures market suggests (under 18% chance of a Fed increase). Like Seth Green said to "E" regarding his girlfriend Sloane, the market wants to know "What Up?" Hey Bernanke, what up? We will know in about 23 hours. Enjoy your evening."

Fun stuff . . .

Category: Federal Reserve, Psychology

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

13 Responses to “Hey Bernanke, What Up?”

  1. Kevin says:

    Anyone who can quote Entourage and the stock market in the same article pretty much rules this world. Awesome stuff.

  2. mightbwrong says:

    The next time you are over at CNBC – tell them to take my suggestion of cutting all the “one and done”‘s from all the analysts they have had on for the past year and a half. Of course it would take over an hour to run all of them (Steve Liesman’s “one and done” reports would take most of 1/2 an hour : http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CNBCTV/TV_Info/Anchors&Reporters/P22263.asp) Bernanke is only interested in one thing, and that’s inflation, the market is looking at all of these other ‘indicators’ – they don’t matter to Bernanke – just what is core inflation at, which is a problem because it’s a lagging indicator. Energy will continue to drive prices up for the next year, so inflation will continue to rise, and Bernanke will continue to raise rates. It’ll stop somewhere in the 6.5% range – but I might be wrong…

  3. God, it’s so f–king nerve-wracking. There’s the Ned Lamont vs. Joe Doberman primary in CT tomorrow too- and so the direction of our country hangs in the balance as well… Incidentally, I have a photo of Ann Coulter nude on my blog.

  4. wcw says:

    Beware clever links, young fellow, as I learned to my chagrin when I entitled a little post about refining margins Crack spreads. The comments-spambots have been unable to leave that one alone.

    As for rates, I plan to buy the cheapest, short-dated, out-of-the-money US index puts I can find tomorrow morning. If the Fed pauses, I win on my existing Yen calls; if the fed raises, I win on the puts.

  5. wcw2 says:

    hey idiot — when FED pauses you lose on Yen puts, when FED raises you lose on calls

    so either way you lose.. be careful..

    better to be idle..

  6. Cherry says:

    Yuck, Sherman, looking at Coulter nude is worse than looking at her as a old aging wannabe bombshell. Not very sexy at all. Get rid of that link please!!!

  7. wcw says:

    There are time horizons beyond two minutes, too. Break out your monthly return stream and I’ll post mine.

    Not that it matters, but next time you think you’re being clever, just say what you mean. I have absolutely no idea what your riddle-me-this-grasshopper verbiage was supposed to communicate.

    “Hey idiot,” that I understood.

    Good luck tomorrow, nevertheless, at least so long as you’re not on the other side of my trades.

  8. Brian says:

    I’m not clicking the link, but just the idea of Coulter nude is a thermonuclear boner killer.

  9. Andy says:

    That’s SO not Ann Coulter. Not even close.

    That’s a woman in the picture. Ann is not.

  10. Bob A says:

    Just go to show if you put a witches head on a princesses body you still have a witch.

  11. David says:

    Gotta disagree with Kevin. That was some of the most poorly patched-in pop culture reference work I’ve ever read.

  12. Dan Green says:

    I agree with you, Barry, although I am not sure where the 49% figure comes in.

    The entire market is ready for a shake-up. 83% of the traders betting against a Fed increase makes me think that emotional trading is trumping fundamentals.

    Funny part is, the Fed doesn’t have to raise rates to roil them — it just has to say that it may raise rates at the next meeting.

    As a mortgage guy, I have been telling my clients to lock their rates as soon as possible. I am expecting carnage tomorrow in the MBS market.

  13. brion says:

    That IS Ann! I knew her in college and she had that knee thing growing out of her crotch….
    it made her very angry at times…that and her Catholicism….VERY angry.