"Every time we’ve gone into a downturn in the home-building industry, they’ve
always been longer and deeper than we’ve all imagined. So we’re preparing for the worst, and we
think this one will be longer and deeper than just the last six months." -Donald Tomnitz, chief executive, D.R. Horton, the nation’s largest home builder

>

As we wait for Existing Homes Sales data today, and New Home Sales tomorrow, we thought it was an opportune time to review how we got to where we are in the housing market.

Its been exactly one year since we announced in this space that "Real Estate Begins to Cool."

To review what we said last August 2005: Two major themes we have been discussing for quite some time
appear to be coming together:

A) Real Estate, though not a bubble,
is an extended asset class overdue to retrace;
B) RE has been the dominant sector
in the US
economy since the recession ended.

It turns out that call was correct; Real Estate has slowly faded, as the rates rose, the Home Affordability Index hit 15 year lows, and a measure of Builder’s Sentiment dropped to levels not seen in decades. Indeed, we can even mark the peak in the Housing boom around that same time.

Housing_hard_landing_1

What has been so astonishing about the housing boom is how totally misunderstood its been by people who should have known better, real estate agents, mortgage brokers, developers, and economists. To reiterate our views, half century low interest rates, combined with an investor class burned by the stock market crash, Wall Street scandals and corporate malfeasance on a grand scale saw Housing as a better place to park their dollars.

Mean reversion apparently is not understood by many real-estate professionals. From brokers to lenders to developers and home builders, there was a irrational expectation that the "soaring
property market eventually would glide to a soft landing."
  It makes little sense to assume that after home prices more than doubled between 2000 and 2005, they would then mean nicely revert to a normalized gain 5%
or 6% a year.

That’s the equivalent of stocks reverting to a 10% annual gains after the 1995-2000 run up. In case you forgot, lots of cheerleaders predicted that would happen. Remember, it was a new paradigm, and eyeballs and sticky pages counted much more than revenues and profits.

Of course, the market crashed in 2000, with the Nasdaq — home to the hottest market sectors of tech, telecom and internet — getting hit the most. It dropped 78%.

So too, will the hottest sectors of Real Estate get hit the hardest in the slowdown. That means the Coastal Northeast, (NY, Boston). California, South Florida and Las Vegas along with a few other hot areas will feel the burn more than the sleepy parts of the country where home prices ares till relatively reasonable. I don’t expect real estate prices to crash 78% in these markets, but a healthy retracement of recent gains is very likely in the cards.

I expect to see a reverse of what occured when rates were slashed. As more and more potential buyers are priced out of the market, many homes will sit for sale longer, and some will have to be discounted aggressively to sell.

Bad news for Housing is good news is for apartment building owners: Marginalized buyers will be come renters. This is a large part of the reason we have seen rents rise lately. The New York Times reports that "in the metropolitan area covering New York, Long Island and Northern New
Jersey, annual increases in rent surpassed 5 percent in the second half of last
year for the first time since 1990, according to government statistics. And
brokers and landlords in the city speak of even sharper rises lately."

They write:

In the early years of this decade, low interest rates and rising home prices
prompted more Americans to buy, both because of the lure of a healthy profit and
the fear of being left out of the game. As a consequence, demand for rental
properties shrank — pushing up vacancy rates and pulling down rents.

By the fourth quarter of 2004, rental vacancy rates had risen to 10.4
percent, the highest level since the government started tracking them in 1960.
Overall rent gains slowed to a modest 2.5 percent through early 2004, their
slowest since the mid- 1990’s. And in the bigger rental complexes, according to
the National
Association of Realtors
, rents fell nationally in 2002 and 2003 and inched
up only marginally in 2004.

We have a combination of falling sales and rising rentals. And sales may be falling even faster than has been recently reported. Today’s WSJ observes:

"Nationwide, the median sale price of previously occupied homes in
June was 0.9% higher than it was a year earlier, the smallest year-to-year
increase since May 1995, according to the National Association of Realtors. Over the next few months, the median price may decline from
year-earlier periods, a spokesman for the association says, something that
hasn’t happened since February 1993.

The market may be weaker than the Realtors’ widely followed
monthly reports suggest
. The group’s data don’t reflect the latest transactions.
Its report on July home sales, for instance, due today, will mainly reflect
sales that were agreed upon in May or June and closed in July. Moreover, when
the market turns down, many home sellers initially let their homes sit instead
of cutting prices enough to entice buyers.

The bottom line remains that real estate will no longer drive the economy the way it has over the past 5 years. And nothing else has risen to take its place as a key driver of consumer spending, or creator of jobs.

If that remains the case, its hard to see how a dramatic economic slowdown — or even  a recession — can be avoided . . .

Hard_landing_2

Source:
Housing Slump Proves Painful For Some Owners and Builders
‘Hard Landing’ on the Coasts Jolts Those Who Must Sell;
JAMES R. HAGERTY and MICHAEL CORKERY
August 23, 2006; Page A1
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB115630090176442994.html

Rents Are Rising Rapidly After Long Lull
EDUARDO PORTER
NYTimes, August 19, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/19/business/19rents.html

Builders sour on condos, love apartments
Affordablity falls to record low in second quarter
REX NUTTING
MarketWatch, August 22, 2006 3:14 p.m.
http://tinyurl.com/kb9ml

Category: Consumer Spending, Economy, Real Estate

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

52 Responses to “How We Got To This Point in the Housing Market”

  1. BDG123 says:

    Soft landings are for dimwits and nimrods. The perma bears finally have their day. It’s the single one item which has changed my opinion to expect more than a midcycle correction. Consumer credit, mortgage debt, savings rates, blah, blah, blah. It’s all about housing.

  2. Uncle Jack says:

    “The bottom line remains that real estate will no longer drive the economy the way it has over the past 5 years.”

    I’ll beg to differ on that one point, if ever so slightly. Real Estate will drive the economy alright, but instead of up the road will be down.

  3. CDizzle says:

    Clearly, low-profile/stodgy areas such as my locale, St. Louis, will experience a lesser pullback/slowdown. However, there has been a clear and steady increase in homes for sale over the last 6 months.

    One development on a golf course that I like to play every 2 weeks or so reflect what happens “when worlds collide.” The development is 4-5 years old and what I’m seeing is newly finished homes sitting on the market and existing homes for sale (the number of which has tripled in the last 4 months) competing with them.

    Lots of rumors about troubles with local builders as well. The ‘worst of breed’ larger-size builder has also gone belly up during 2006.

    If it’s this soft in a “zero-growth” metro area like St. Louis, I know it’s rough most everywhere else.

  4. doh! says:

    “If that remains the case, its hard to see how a dramatic economic slowdown — or even a recession — can be avoided . . . ”

    Wouldn’t this also explain the rally in bonds as the ghouls see the same thing coming as you do Barry?

  5. Craig H says:

    When it rains it pours. See the KBH news on possible options shenanigans. Would anyone be surprised that there were executive excesses during the heady days of the housing run-up?

  6. Russell says:

    <>

    Real Estate not a bubble?

    The “extended overdue asset class” (aka bubble) has been noted frequently since 2003: just not by the major media.

    A minor problem will come from layoffs in construction.

    The major problem will be going into a downturn with piggy banks (homes) declining in value, financed with mortgage products created to boost the immediate quarterly profits of the mortgage lenders regardless of future problems.

    Of course the banks have securitized many of these loans, but when the foreclosures start making the buy backs expensive (or their credit risk too high) liquidity is going to dry up like a grape in the sun.

    And that is when realestate and the economy will get ugly.

  7. Bob says:

    With the Wall Street bonuses hitting record highs again this year, I dont think there is much concern around NYC housing market.

    The hardest hit areas would be the second-tier, purely speculative markets like Phoenix and Vegas.

  8. Patrick (G) says:

    I don’t know if landlords should count on rents rising ever higher: Properties that don’t sell are likely to become rentals to offset those mortgages…

  9. jmf says:

    even in the uk the endgame is near.

    they createt the “debt that never dies”

    they say that this kind of loan is popular in japan.
    what a reference………..

    http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/08/uk-debt-that-never-dies.html

  10. BDG123 says:

    NYC will get crushed with a capital K. This is the most aggressive housing build out in over 200 years of this country statistically. Historically, there was always pretty much a 1:1 ratio of new households to new homes. This time it is 2.4 to one. Massive supply is still coming online. Especially in condos.

    St. Louis is relatively safe? Maybe. Maybe not. Ohio is one of the worst markets. Do you think if the midwest can be hit hard that it could spread? It’s like a ripple in the pond with the industries that could be hit.

  11. Michael C. says:

    Locally, a Century 21 just shut its doors. It was never a high producing office as it catered to the newbie realtors.

    I heard the lease was up. It’s interesting to me in that it’s only cost is the lease of the office. It pays the realtors nothing unless they can close.

    Sign of the times. And it should continue to trickle through the economy.

  12. One of the reasons I said it wasn’t a bubble was the intrinsic value of real estate and housing, and the “tether” (for lack of a better word) to a certain percentage of buyers.

    This might be a definitional issue, and a 35% haircut is still very significant — but that is a correction, and not a crash.

  13. Michael C. says:

    Existing Home sales down 4.1% to 6.33mln rate (6.6 expected). Inventory up to 7.3 months (was 6.8 in June).

    Another anecdote, as I was up in Big Bear Lake this past weekend, a fun spot for So Californians. About 60-70% of the properties there had for sale signs. Not an exageration at all, it was quite staggering. Of all the properties for sale I saw maybe 2-3 sold signs. Many were being remodeled, some major remodeling, with the for sale sign outside. This area use to be very cheap and is representative of the “2nd home” or vacation house real estate market, not the primary residence real estate market.

  14. JDamon says:

    CDizzle, are you referring to Tapawingo? I have also noticed the high-end in St. Louis really getting whacked. One new subdivision, which is pricing homes starting in the high 700′s, low 800′s (probably 2 – 300 over where they should be) has only sold one house in over a year (75+ home development). They aren’t budging on pricing though.

    While I see the high end hit hard, the low and middle seems to be doing just fine. Homes in the 200′s up to 500′s are all selling OK.

    I still think folks are making too big a deal about the housing impact. I know in St. Louis most won’t go belly up because they can’t sell their house at prices they were fetching a year ago. They will just pull the house off the market and wait out the downturn. I am not seeing sellers franctically reduce prices yet, so that tells me we are not yet in a crisis.

    Which Luxury/high-end home builder went belly up? Lawless?

  15. GerryL says:

    Existing home sales were down greater than expected. I have seen the economist from the National Association of Realtors on CNBC and he seems more like a marketing rep than an economist. Maybe I am too skeptical but I am not sure that I trust the numbers from the NAR. I have a feeling they are worse than reported.

  16. BDG123 says:

    So JD, let me ask you, in 1930 when everyone was worried, would you have been buying into decines? Just in 1929 unemployment was 3%. Profits were raging. Now, we’re not in 1929, we’re in 1936 but………. Sentiment is a dangerous tool if all one thinks is it is being a contrarian to consensus.

  17. Brian says:

    Wasn’t the TOL guy selling million of shares at the exact top: in July 2005 at the head of the housing head & shoulders? lAnd CNBC at the time was sure helping those guys unload their merchandise.

    Someone mentioned Ohio. We’re already number one in bankruptcies and forclosures. Can’t wait until a housing slowdown really hits! (Although, because no sane person would want to live here, houses haven’t doubled or anything).

  18. Chief Tomahawk says:

    So, with the new housing data in, how long until a Media Appearence on “Kudlow & Company” comes along? C’mon, Larry’s gonna want to go bear hunting now more than ever!

  19. JV says:

    “This might be a definitional issue, and a 35% haircut is still very significant — but that is a correction, and not a crash. ”

    One issue is the drop maybe less than the 78% drop in the NASDAQ, however everyone is levered up in real estate. Most people hadn’t levered up their bubbly equity investments.

    JV

  20. Rick says:

    Recession Risk?

    Such contrasts with the views of some other Fed officials who now see growth slowing enough to cause at least a small increase in unemployment, now at 4.8 percent. The slowdown would not be pronounced enough, in their view, to be considered a recession.

    The Goldman Sachs economists questioned whether such a forecast was realistic.

    “The U.S. economy historically has had an extremely difficult time sustaining below-trend growth without falling into recession,” they said. “Every rise in the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate by more than one-third percentage point since 1948 has ended in a recession.”

    That sort of history is the principal reason some Fed officials argued very strongly for a pause in raising the lending rate target — the concern of over-shooting.

    Even though Moskow was worried about the inflation outlook, he noted that oil futures contracts currently point to a stabilization of crude prices.

    Oil Stability

    “Should this occur, once businesses adjust their own prices to cover the higher energy costs, overall inflation should return to its earlier rate,” Moskow said.

    One reason to think the futures markets may be right is the recent behavior of prices.

    Even amid the turmoil in the Middle East caused by the war in Iraq, the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and Iran’s refusal to abandon its nuclear energy program — plus sporadic attacks on Nigerian oil facilities and the shutting of a major pipeline in Alaska — the price of crude oil contracts traded yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange was no higher than it was four months ago.

    From John M. Berry of Bloomberg News

  21. douglas says:

    When you are talking about leveraged money, a small correction is a big crash.
    And I wouldn’t bet on rental property. How far does the market have to drop (or rents increase) for an investor to find positive cash flow properties?
    It’s time to hoard cash and wait.

  22. advsys says:

    Yesss!
    I asked the question about two months ago. Does anyone see anything that will replace housing as an economic driver. No one had anything.

    If that is true, a recession is unavoidable. I have also made the case that recessions are not all bad. They do build a base for future growth.

    Barry. Still would like to hear your definition of a bubble. In my definition of a bubble, housing is a bubble. Bubbles to me are when human emotion overrides logic and experience for the majority. We know that happened in the tech bubble. I certainly see the same happening in the last 2 years in housing.

  23. S says:

    Has this really been the most aggressive housing build in 200 years?

    Levittown was created in 1947. My guess is that the national building boom that followed to copy Levitt’s success in building cookie cutter, mass produced suburbs was probably the most aggressive buildout in 200 years. Just a hunch, don’t have the data to support it.

    However, I do have data that goes back to 1959.

    Using that data, I see there has only been one three- year period in which housing starts exceeded 2 million units each year: 1971, 1972 and 1973.

    During the current cycle, there was only one year in which housing starts exceeded 2 million units. That was in 2005 when 2.1 million units were started. And this cycle’s peak in 2005 was about 14% less than the 1972 peak of 2.4 million units.

    What is unique about this cycle is how long its been since the last “bust” period.

    Why do you feel the current cycle is more aggressive than either the 1971 – 1973 period or the period following Levitt’s invention of the suburb?

  24. ssf says:

    20-30% fall will wipe out equity on everyone who bought last 2 or 3 years …… Buy bonds , stay short the homebuilders until they hit 50% of book

  25. GerryL says:

    S,

    There was a huge boom post ww2 but that was real demand based upon pent up demand after the war. The GIs came home, started families and needed housing. I dont have the numbers but I seriously doubt there was much speculation then. The current housing market is a much different situation.

  26. Bob_in_MA says:

    One can argue that this isn’t (wasn’t) a bubble because of steady net household creation, etc. But I think that’s irrelevant because home prices can fall significantly anyways.

    #1. a big fall in volume of sales and new building will be a drag on jobs and economic activity generally.

    #2. merely steady prices are going to put the kibosh on equity withdrawals, and the argument that there is still trillions in equity that hasn’t been hocked is misleading. The people willing to take out equity to buy a new car, pay off credit cards, etc., are running out of room. The people not foolish enough to follow their lead are unlikely to do so simply for the good of the economy. A fair chuck of consumer spending (3-6% ?) has been due to foolish people making foolish choices, and mommy has learned to hide her purse.

    #3. the current high inventory mean that prices will likely begin to fall some yoy even if demand were to remain steady.

    All three are pretty much a given at this point. And as they evolve, all three will tend to feed each other.

    When someone on either coast can’t sell a house in 2007 for 15% less than he bought it for in 2005, I don’t think it will matter whether this was a bubble, per se.

    A recession is now almost a sure thing, and even a whole point cut in the Fed rate isn’t going to have any effect on housing. Mortgage rates have been falling and are now only about 60 basis points above the low point in 2003. And the Fed is going to have to increasingly fend off a too severe fall in the dollar.

    To a large extent, the housing boom itself was fueling the housing boom, and now the fall will itself begin to accelerate the fall.

  27. Estragon says:

    S – I assert that the current housing boom is an echo of the early 70′s one. The major drivers then were the desertion of inner cities in favour of suburbs, and the formation of households by boomers. The children of those boomers have been forming households and creating housing demand for the last few years. Because interest rates have been exceptionally low, the demand went primarily to owner occupied housing instead of rentals. In my view, the path of median real wages will be the most significant factor in the housing market for the next couple of years.

  28. K-Dawg says:

    Housing market downturn -> U.S. Recession -> Less consumption -> Foreigners expunge U.S. debt -> Weaker U.S. Dollar -> Higher Interest rates = Global Debt Implosion

  29. Lord says:

    While the coasts will have the largest absolute declines, outlying cities and vacation areas will have larger percentage declines, and the largest of all percentage declines will be midwest towns with closing auto plants.

    These can’t be turned into rentals without negative carrying costs. A few may be able to carry them, but more will end up as foreclosures. Many will be lucky to carry their own home.

  30. L'Emmerdeur says:

    Bob, Average sale price of a Manhattan apartment fell 12% from June to July.

    If I hear one more person say that Wall Street bonuses will keep NYC real estate afloat, I’ll puke. Those Wall Street bonuses were NOT earned by buying at the top of stupendous bubbles. Why would people smart and in-the-know enough to earn large Wall Street bonuses then screw themselves by buying an overpriced asset?

    Everyone I know who earns said bonuses has the money sitting in a nice savings account earning 5%, waiting until real estate bleeds out and flatlines.

  31. BDG123 says:

    The post world WWII building boom differs from today in the sense that household creation was enormous with all of the boys coming back from the war, marrying and starting families. It was the parents of the baby boomers and created a sustainable housing expansion.

    It doesn’t matter whether we build two houses or twenty million houses a year. It is sustainable as long as household creation is tracking equally with the building industry.

    This is THE biggest buildout in the history of America as defined by building rate tracking to household creation. It’s a bubble.

  32. joe says:

    I think the difference between a “bubble” and “an extended asset class” is semantics. JV makes a great point that a 35% decline in an asset that is substantially levered can be every bit as painful as a 78% decline in equities. Jeremy Grantham of GMO has done some of the best work I’ve seen on bubbles. He defines a bubble as 2 standard deviations from the mean. I believe the US housing bubble was the 28th bubble he has identified. ALL of the past 27 mean reverted. As he says, maybe this is the one bubble that doesn’t revert, but I wouldn’t bet on it…

  33. albiegf13 says:

    Ladies and Gentlemen…. No matter how you look at the numbers, there is no way that anyone can spin them in a possitive light. This HUGE asset class is and remains extremely overextended and over leveraged. The question that brings the chickens home to roost is the one that was asked in one of the posts.. What will replace housing (real estate). My answer is. I DONT KNOW.

    My gut tells me that we are going to have a disaster. Trust me, I’m not happy about this, I don’t like to be right in sittuations like this. Many of my friends are going to get hurt. I was the fool of course when I advised them to be prudent at dinner parties where the only things discussed were how much their investment properties had appreciated in value. Just a year ago everyone I knew was a “real estate genius”. “greed gets them in and fear takes them out”.

  34. Estragon says:

    albiegf13 – Although I doubt we’ll see anything replace real estate, I see two things as required to avoid the “disaster” you see. First, a significant moderation in energy prices. Second, a significant increase in median real wages.

  35. Ray Hoffman says:

    “What has been so astonishing about the housing boom is how totally misunderstood its been by people who should have known better, real estate agents, mortgage brokers, developers, and economists.”

    Totally wrong! I worked as real estate broker in Calfornia up to 2005. I- along with most PROFESSIONAL fellow brokers- were completely aware that there was a bubble forming. In fact many of us expected it to pop in 2003. The run-ups in 2004 and 2005 housing prices were unbeliveable.

    We informed our clients about our views. Most didn’t care- they were too driven to buy something because they had the easy credit. Buyers had a lot of fear that they would be left behind and never be able to buy something.

    And many clients had a different view, along the lines of “yeah, the market is f–ked up, but I’m gonna flip some properties and exploit it while the opportunities there.” Lots of developers took on this mentality. Those who kept check on reality did well (and are now OUT!)- those who haven’t (i.e. Toll Brothers) are in trouble now.

    Brokers are just faciliators. Brokers could never had done much with this bubble if it were not for the pervasive “buy something now” psychology of the public.

  36. T says:

    What, dare I ask, is going to drive a significant increase in median real wages? Without a corresponding productivity boost, any widespread nominal wage gains are likely to be matched by corresponding inflation, negating them on a real basis.

  37. BDG123 says:

    I floated my house on the market a year ago. I talked to five agents. All clueless as to any pending doom. I remember CNBC interviewing agents in New York and Miami on their lunch show. They were totally clueless as well.

    If you saw it as a professional in the industry, you were one of the smart ones. Most didn’t from my experience.

  38. Estragon says:

    T – I don’t know if a boost in productivity can be ruled out, but it’s not very likely at this point in the cycle. More likely is that increased real median wages come largely at the expense of corporate profit margins, which are at or near historic levels as a proportion of GDP. A significant decline in energy prices may provide cover for the fed to avoid raising rates in the face of rising nominal wages. The fed has also explicitly recognized the apparent ability of corporate margins to absorb cost pressures, and they’re presumably looking for signs of this.

    If, as you suggest, nominal wage gains flow through to prices, real gains obviously won’t happen. Worse, long term interest rates would likely be pressed upward, which would reinforce the vicious housing slowdown circle.

  39. Bob_in_MA says:

    I think it’s kind of naive to expect someone who’s income is based on trading houses to say it’s a bad time to buy.

    But what I don’t get are the analysts who supposedly get paid to be right. I bought KB Homes Jan 2007 puts in June of 2005 and all but one of eleven analysts with a starmine ranking had it as a buy, the eleventh was neutral. A couple still have it as a buy, only one as a sell. It’s just like with techs in 2000-2001… By the time the analysts notice the debacle, it’s over. Why does anyone listen to these people?

  40. JK says:

    you should follow the Hedge fund analysts who preached housing as a “short” , not the sell-side analysts who still need investment banking support

  41. JDamon says:

    By the way, which is it around here. Should everyone be worried about a slowdown due to a housing “correction” or should we all be worried about rampant “underreported” inflation?

    Sorry, but I don’t buy the stagflation scenario. A little far-fetched for me. The economy and US business climate is still quite resilient and with profits as high as they are, I don’t see stagflation as a real risk.

    From most posters the theme seems to be – Be Worried, Be Very Worried…..

  42. Albiegf13 says:

    Estragon – $10.00 Crude would be nice… Remember…? As for median real wages, the increase would have to be conmensurate with the impact that housing and construction would have on GDP. I dont see this adjustment happening. Au contraire, that’s an area that where the word “real” is starting to look scary… Perhaps we should backdate some options… Or better said, cancel the past..

    ;-)

  43. Khyron says:

    See this:

    http://alphaguy.blogspot.com/2006/08/apartment-reits.html

    Too bad I can’t find the original piece on WSJ.com where the CEO of Camden Property Trust (CPT) was talking about how they had implemented software which told them they could raise apartment rents 20-25% in many markets.

  44. Estragon says:

    Albiegf13 – Yes, I remember $10 crude… it doesn’t seem that long ago. Age .

    Non-residential construction and capital spending might possibly replace residential’s direct affect on GDP. The further worry though, and the one requiring significant gains in real median wages, is the lost wealth effect and cash extracted from housing.

    On balance, there’s a lot that could go wrong with a soft landing scenario, so I’m not betting the rent money on it. We mere mortals only get to learn from history, we don’t get to rewrite it. ;-)

  45. IP address: : 199.67.138.83 is:

    SS
    Doh
    Ned
    pf

    This IP address averages 6 comment per BP post.

    I am coming ever closer to requiring a real address to post.

  46. Cherry says:

    I don’t know why everybody is so scared of recession. Booms end, economies stagnate. So the US has a bad 2007-9 period. It happens. If the government is going to cry over it, boo who. They have about as much cred as a pickle right now.

    This recession will be very nice. No worse than 90-91 IMO. The benefit may lead to better job growth for the economy overall as it has been sluggish outside of RE this cycle. RE will recover by 2010 and normally operate.

    Now, if the global credit ponzi scheme collapses, get out of the kitchen lol!!!!!!

    Barry, SS is a troll? Who would have guessed it!!!

  47. Bryan says:

    Though Birinyi doesn’t disclose the name (which we all know as D.R. Horton), they BR original post an interesting perspective:

    http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/2006/08/homebuilder_ceo.html

    bk

  48. Bryan says:

    Pardon the mistype in my previous comment – to be corrected as:

    Though Birinyi doesn’t disclose the name (which we all know as D.R. Horton), they *give the BP original post* an interesting perspective:

    http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/2006/08/homebuilder_ceo.html

  49. whipsaw says:

    per BR:

    “IP address: : 199.67.138.83 is:

    SS
    Doh
    Ned
    pf

    This IP address averages 6 comment per BP post.”

    not necessarily the same person Barry, looks more like the common IP of some Salomon guys with time to kill:

    Server Used: [ whois.arin.net ]

    199.67.138.83 = [ ]

    OrgName: Salomon Inc.
    OrgID: SALM
    Address: 388 Greenwich
    City: New York
    StateProv: NY
    PostalCode: 10013
    Country: US
    NetRange: 199.67.128.0 – 199.67.247.255
    CIDR: 199.67.128.0/18 199.67.192.0/19 199.67.224.0/20 199.67.240.0/21
    NetName: NETBLK-SBI
    NetHandle: NET-199-67-128-0-1
    Parent: NET-199-0-0-0-0
    NetType: Direct Allocation
    NameServer: NS1.NSROOT1.COM
    NameServer: NS2.NSROOT2.COM
    Comment:
    RegDate: 1994-01-20
    Updated: 2003-08-14
    RTechHandle: NEC1-ARIN
    RTechName: Citigroup
    RTechPhone: 1-212-723-5500
    RTechEmail: network.addressmngt@citigroup.com

    OrgAbuseHandle: CCC9-ARIN
    OrgAbuseName: CTAC Command Center
    OrgAbusePhone: 1-212-723-4480
    OrgAbuseEmail: ctaccmdcenter@citigroup.com

    OrgTechHandle: PATRI6-ARIN
    OrgTechName: Morris Patrick A.
    OrgTechPhone: 1-212-816-1780
    OrgTechEmail: patrick.a.morris@citigroup.com

    ARIN WHOIS database last updated 2006-08-22 19: 10
    Enter ? for additional hints on searching ARIN’s WHOIS database.

  50. BDG123 says:

    You’ll never get everyone’s IP addy. The above peek into ARIN shows its a bank of addys. Corporate secure gateways and ISPs most typically block the specific computer information. Even if you think you are seeing it with specific info such as browser type, you might still be looking at an ISP or gateway or router addy. Even ARIN can’t distinguish. So, unless you want to call Citigroup and find out the specific addy…………………And they aren’t going to tell you any more than the NSA will. JMO.

  51. la says:

    What are we going to do with all the illegals here working construction. I never see anybody but Mexicans building houses anymore. This ain’t going to be pretty.