Comments on: Calling All Conspiracy Theorists! http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/09/calling-all-conspiracy-theorists/ Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media Wed, 17 Mar 2010 01:57:25 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: wunsacon http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/09/calling-all-conspiracy-theorists/comment-page-2/#comment-25426 wunsacon Wed, 01 Nov 2006 00:26:35 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/?p=3360#comment-25426 On my comment that "call Saudi friends and tell them not to cut production (storage at 5-year highs)", remember that the Saudi royals: - rely on our military hardware to stay in power and - rely on us not to spend too tax money developing a national infrastructure for alternative energy. For them, it's better for Bush to stay in power. Heck, another leadership (even a change within the GOP) might even take them to task over their human rights. (E.g., I've heard the birth of women is not even recorded.) On my comment that “call Saudi friends and tell them not to cut production (storage at 5-year highs)”, remember that the Saudi royals:

- rely on our military hardware to stay in power and

- rely on us not to spend too tax money developing a national infrastructure for alternative energy.

For them, it’s better for Bush to stay in power.

Heck, another leadership (even a change within the GOP) might even take them to task over their human rights. (E.g., I’ve heard the birth of women is not even recorded.)

]]> By: whipsaw http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/09/calling-all-conspiracy-theorists/comment-page-2/#comment-25425 whipsaw Mon, 02 Oct 2006 23:30:17 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/?p=3360#comment-25425 per wcw: "I think it is time to stop arguing and put money on it." Already there, but via cheap long XLE calls. For those of you who expect energy to either stay about the same or actually drop after the erection, you should be writing naked calls against XLE or your favorite member of the oil plutocracy. Eeeeasy money! per wcw:
“I think it is time to stop arguing and put money on it.”

Already there, but via cheap long XLE calls. For those of you who expect energy to either stay about the same or actually drop after the erection, you should be writing naked calls against XLE or your favorite member of the oil plutocracy. Eeeeasy money!

]]> By: Barry Ritholtz http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/09/calling-all-conspiracy-theorists/comment-page-2/#comment-25424 Barry Ritholtz Mon, 02 Oct 2006 20:42:26 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/?p=3360#comment-25424 Now we are getting somewhere: The NYT: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/30/business/30trading.html" rel="nofollow">Change in Goldman Index Played Role in Gasoline Price Drop</a> and: <a href="http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2006/10/friends-in-high-places.html" rel="nofollow">Friends in High Places?</a> Now we are getting somewhere:

The NYT: Change in Goldman Index Played Role in Gasoline Price Drop

and: Friends in High Places?

]]> By: laffingstock http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/09/calling-all-conspiracy-theorists/comment-page-2/#comment-25423 laffingstock Mon, 02 Oct 2006 20:14:42 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/?p=3360#comment-25423 Posted on Briefing late this afternoon... 'US Energy Dept to delay buying through winter 11 mln bbls replacement oil for strategic oil reserve- Reserve' What the heck are they waiting for, why I remember when Bush refused to release any. Must be the mild weather, on the other hand I've heard it said,"you don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows" Posted on Briefing late this afternoon…

‘US Energy Dept to delay buying through winter 11 mln bbls replacement oil for strategic oil reserve- Reserve’
What the heck are they waiting for, why I remember
when Bush refused to release any.
Must be the mild weather, on the other hand I’ve
heard it said,”you don’t have to be a weatherman
to know which way the wind blows”

]]> By: wcw http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/09/calling-all-conspiracy-theorists/comment-page-2/#comment-25422 wcw Mon, 02 Oct 2006 05:23:12 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/?p=3360#comment-25422 I think it is time to stop arguing and put money on it. To the $80-by-year-end crowd, Jan-07 crude has to be a bargain at <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CLF07.NYM" rel="nofollow">$65.37</a>. That contract (if I read this right; I don't trade CL) requires just <a href="http://www.nymex.com/CL_marg.aspx" rel="nofollow">$3,375 initial margin</a>. Let us say you are right, and you close CLF07 out at $80 on the last day of trading, December 19. You'll make $14,000+ per contract. Be my guest, but don't say I didn't warn you to <a href="http://www.cftc.gov/opa/brochures/opafutures.htm" rel="nofollow">consider the risks</a>. I think it is time to stop arguing and put money on it.

To the $80-by-year-end crowd, Jan-07 crude has to be a bargain at $65.37. That contract (if I read this right; I don’t trade CL) requires just $3,375 initial margin. Let us say you are right, and you close CLF07 out at $80 on the last day of trading, December 19. You’ll make $14,000+ per contract.

Be my guest, but don’t say I didn’t warn you to consider the risks.

]]> By: Zephyr http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/09/calling-all-conspiracy-theorists/comment-page-2/#comment-25421 Zephyr Mon, 02 Oct 2006 02:26:52 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/?p=3360#comment-25421 http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2006/10/the_great_gasol.html http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2006/10/the_great_gasol.html

]]> By: Zephyr http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/09/calling-all-conspiracy-theorists/comment-page-2/#comment-25420 Zephyr Mon, 02 Oct 2006 02:22:55 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/?p=3360#comment-25420 Whipsaw, the recent market moves fit with what many have expected based on the natural fundamentals. Any attempted manipulation in the same direction would be irrelevant in power and thus pointless. Believe whatever you want. Whipsaw, the recent market moves fit with what many have expected based on the natural fundamentals. Any attempted manipulation in the same direction would be irrelevant in power and thus pointless.

Believe whatever you want.

]]> By: conspriacy nut http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/09/calling-all-conspiracy-theorists/comment-page-2/#comment-25419 conspriacy nut Mon, 02 Oct 2006 01:59:46 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/?p=3360#comment-25419 the reason that oil went up and then went down to the day was a increase in the solar wind to climatic proportions and its consequent precipitous decline. its facinating, watch the values and compare to the price of oil, an "emotionally traded" commodity. Magnetic flux effects peoples emotions and consequently their outlook and trading behaviour. I, though, like many others, always enjoy a good conspiracy! Its human nature to look for a reason to rationalize our world. When it thunders, its because the gods are angry.....hmmmmmm, sounds pausible.... the reason that oil went up and then went down to the day was a increase in the solar wind to climatic proportions and its consequent precipitous decline. its facinating, watch the values and compare to the price of oil, an “emotionally traded” commodity. Magnetic flux effects peoples emotions and consequently their outlook and trading behaviour.

I, though, like many others, always enjoy a good conspiracy! Its human nature to look for a reason to rationalize our world. When it thunders, its because the gods are angry…..hmmmmmm, sounds pausible….

]]> By: whipsaw http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/09/calling-all-conspiracy-theorists/comment-page-2/#comment-25418 whipsaw Mon, 02 Oct 2006 01:52:08 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/?p=3360#comment-25418 Zephyr, you severely underestimate the power of a sovereign in any so-called free market. I've seen the BoJ run the stops in the forex market, along with the Russians and Chinese from time to time. And when gold and silver crashed in April(?), the word was that bids were pulled for over an hour to accomodate the Chinese who had gotten themselves into a mess with short positions. The point is that none of this is about capitalism, it's about mercantilism and printing money as needed, as well as pulling levers behind the curtain. And since you brought it up, manipulation isn't a unidirectional pasttime, in fact it usually occurs to drive prices higher. But the mechanism is the same when a sovereign does it- run the stops- unless there is a more sublime method available like having Bush, Ahmadinejad, Chavez, etc. talk up a crisis. Sorry but I do not share your belief in the magic market that makes crime impossible for more than a few days. If that was true, there wouldn't have been any reason to regulate it (such as that is) to begin with. Zephyr, you severely underestimate the power of a sovereign in any so-called free market. I’ve seen the BoJ run the stops in the forex market, along with the Russians and Chinese from time to time. And when gold and silver crashed in April(?), the word was that bids were pulled for over an hour to accomodate the Chinese who had gotten themselves into a mess with short positions. The point is that none of this is about capitalism, it’s about mercantilism and printing money as needed, as well as pulling levers behind the curtain.

And since you brought it up, manipulation isn’t a unidirectional pasttime, in fact it usually occurs to drive prices higher. But the mechanism is the same when a sovereign does it- run the stops- unless there is a more sublime method available like having Bush, Ahmadinejad, Chavez, etc. talk up a crisis.

Sorry but I do not share your belief in the magic market that makes crime impossible for more than a few days. If that was true, there wouldn’t have been any reason to regulate it (such as that is) to begin with.

]]> By: Zephyr http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2006/09/calling-all-conspiracy-theorists/comment-page-2/#comment-25417 Zephyr Sun, 01 Oct 2006 23:56:55 +0000 http://thebigpicture.dev.wilder.ca/blog/?p=3360#comment-25417 sb "underestimate" sb “underestimate”

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