James K. Glassman, the author of the book Dow 36,000 was on CNBC just now, credibly discussing his 36,000 forecast.
This one is so obvious, I will not even comment, and instead ask you: What do you suspect this might possibly mean?
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In any great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to be right alone. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Asian currencies continue to sell off vs the $ on the heels of the news yesterday that South Korea said they will look into hot money inflows stemming from the $ carry trade and the Bank of Indonesia said they are looking into the foreign buying of bills. This follows the news a few weeks ago that Taiwan was limiting foreign deposit holdings and Brazil was taxing foreign inflow transactions. As I mentioned yesterday, we may have reached a short term pain threshold in terms of $ weakness and foreign countries are fighting back as they certainly won't wait for...
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September 29th, 2006 at 3:02 pm
What was Rudolph-Younes Riad’s brilliantly formulated description of investing in Barron’s a couple of weeks ago? A combination of dogmatism and pragmatism. I didn’t see the CNBC interview, but when the market crashed, these guys pragmatically lowered their profiles. Now that we’re closing in on the old highs, at least in nominal terms, they’re pragmatically reasserting the old dogma! I think they’re on to something this time. Dow 36000. With all that buying power sitting on the sidelines, with all those hedgies needing to make their years, and justify their existences, we get there by year end. First quarter 2007, latest.
September 29th, 2006 at 3:15 pm
STOCK MARKET TOP! STOCK MARKET TOP!
September 29th, 2006 at 3:19 pm
I’ll guess it means the producers at CNBC are in extreme short positions and getting a little nervous, and so they want to speed up the process…
September 29th, 2006 at 3:23 pm
It must mean the 2nd edition will be in a bookstore near you soon.
September 29th, 2006 at 3:24 pm
OMG, did you read the paean from Knight Kiplinger that this work is in the same league with Buffet’s homilies and Graham’s books! Did he use the word “altar”?
September 29th, 2006 at 3:27 pm
Never fear–Prechter has a new book out too, calling yet another top. Hurray, one year he may be right! But what a genius he has shown for top picking since 1987…
I am actually bearish, but if Bob P. agrees with me I better reexamine my position, and positions. LOL.
Thanks Barry.
September 29th, 2006 at 3:39 pm
Battapaglia getting cautious in July helped me do some long side trades . . .
September 29th, 2006 at 3:41 pm
BTW, I just don’t know how putting a short on for a trade here at the end of the day can be wrong.
The market is overbought. ISM on Monday will be a lose/lose. If it’s too hot, inflation fears are raised and bonds sell off pulling equities down with them. If ISM is weak, they view it as supportive of the Philly Fed and people worry about slower growth. If it hits the mark, then they just take profits from this pimp rally the past few weeks.
But then, someone once said that if something looks obvious in the market it probably isn’t. Even so, my bets are made.
September 29th, 2006 at 3:43 pm
Barry,
The greatest thing was watching you tell Joey B. that he was your contrarian indicator.
September 29th, 2006 at 3:46 pm
You laugh, but this guy is one smart cookie. By picking a very high hurdle he has given his book decades of shelf life. And then, when he is brought out as a centenarian to give interviews when the mark is finally made he will say, “I predicted this years before anyone else did.”
My forecast: Dow 1,242,355,392.
September 29th, 2006 at 3:46 pm
CNBC is such a joke anymore.
Josh
September 29th, 2006 at 4:04 pm
And they say they don’t ring a bell at the top!
There’s your sign……
September 29th, 2006 at 4:13 pm
Anybody see the Kiplinger’s story today? They’re saying 12,070 on the Dow by year end and 13,000 by year end 2007. Kiplinger’s reason for this prediction is that the U.S. is in for a soft landing because rates WILL remain low and housing is just cooling off. Must be nice to see the future through rose colored glasses.
September 29th, 2006 at 4:14 pm
No comment needed indeed. For the uninitiated, click on the link to go to amazon and read few reviews…
September 29th, 2006 at 4:16 pm
How do I get an autographed copy?
September 29th, 2006 at 4:18 pm
I remember attending an investing conf in Chicago back when that Glassman book was popular and he was considered a guru.
Some of us in the audience questioned his assumptions, and were booed by the the other 99% who were drinking this charlatans kool-aid.
September 29th, 2006 at 4:28 pm
On the shelf right next to my Jun 2005 Time cover about the wonders of home appreciation.
September 29th, 2006 at 4:31 pm
Has Ben Stein written a “How Not To Ruin Your Life” column about Glassman yet? Poor guy.
September 29th, 2006 at 4:54 pm
Notice that “Customers who bought this item also bought”:
http://www.amazon.com/Roaring-2000s-Building-Lifestyle-Greatest/dp/0684853108/ref=pd_sim_b_2/002-1894574-8008800?ie=UTF8
http://www.amazon.com/2008-Why-Different-This-Time/dp/1893958701/ref=pd_sim_b_1/002-1894574-8008800?ie=UTF8
Funny how that works…
-Alex
Small Investor Chronicles
September 29th, 2006 at 4:54 pm
But I feel jalous – why in heck those guys are invited to CNBC? This is very unfair to hundreds of other smart people who write good books or maintain interesting websites.
How come TV just doesn’t dump those Glassmans into oblivion, never mention them and never answer their calls?
September 29th, 2006 at 4:55 pm
Opps, sorry about that – I didn’t expect the links to look so ugly across the page…
September 29th, 2006 at 4:56 pm
Maria, get the party hats and ballons ready…
and line up that guy who wrote DOW 36,000 for an interview.
Posted by: tjofpa | Sep 20, 2006 3:35:42 PM
They’re definetly reading your’re blog Barry…
and maybe … gulp… spying on u?
YOu gotem worried!
September 29th, 2006 at 4:57 pm
You know what really has me worried?
No “The Super Duperity Depression of 2007″ by Ravi Batra.
Now I know we’re *&^%$#!!
September 29th, 2006 at 5:07 pm
Dow 3600…. Amazing how history is repeating itself all over again.
I have to admit it. It was so tempting and I could not resist. I took some short positions today after watching James K. Glassman on CNBC.
“Barry, The greatest thing was watching you tell Joey B. that he was your contrarian indicator.”
This was one of the best memorable moments of Kudlow Show. Joe’s facial expression was definitely a bonus. His face was like the poor thing was about to cry.
September 29th, 2006 at 5:22 pm
and on the free Briefing.com site today…
Tech Sector Gets a Raise: Check out our Industry Insight page to find out why we’re upgrading our opinion on the Technology sector from Market Weight to Overweight.
…while downgrades this week to X (monday) and NEM
(wednesday) may have marked a bottom.
You just gotta love this stuff.
September 29th, 2006 at 5:38 pm
Glassman may be right. But minium wage will be $120/hour if he is
The problem for housing is that prices went up faster than inflation but wages didn’t keep up with inflation, and home prices are based on wages (with the exception of bubbles).
If the so called experts are saying home prices will be flat for 5 years the only explanation would be wage inflation.
September 29th, 2006 at 6:17 pm
Did the Dow really hit 36,000 today? Rats! I knew I shouldn’t have gone to the gym this afternoon!
September 29th, 2006 at 8:27 pm
>>>Battapaglia getting cautious in July helped me do some long side trades . . .<<<
Freaking Joe B. I missed that indicator.
We need to make some kind of Bullwinkle Composite Indicator of Battapaglia, Cramer…who else?
September 29th, 2006 at 9:02 pm
Look out below….. no, wait, it’s opposite contrarian day…. full steam ahead……
September 29th, 2006 at 9:44 pm
Yes and no, it could well be that there has been a permanent transfer of purchasing power from wage earners to asset owners. After all the number of potential wage earners has increased a lot (immigration, globalization) but not as much the number of real estate assets.
But I doubt that the whole increase in price will be a straight transfer of purchasing power.
September 29th, 2006 at 9:48 pm
Fixing the wrong closing. Oops.
Also, look at these fantastic graphs of house values and debt expansion in the USA in the past few decades, and imagine the S&P compared with the expansion of debt:
http://HousingPanic.blogSpot.com/2006/09/we-all-know-how-this-ride-ends-dont-we.html
Fascinating coincidences
.
September 30th, 2006 at 6:08 am
Mr. Perma-Bull says: “Okay, we realize you guys aren’t buying off on the Goldilocks scenario and our soft landing theme isn’t gaining any traction so we’ve got a new one for you! The “hard soft landing”! Now can we take the Dow to record highs? Please, pretty please?
http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/28/news/economy/bumpy_landing/index.htm
September 30th, 2006 at 11:08 am
Glasman’s problem is he shot his credibility with that tome. Who listens to him anymore except CNBC?
October 11th, 2006 at 10:06 am
10-11-2006: Items of interest for the Family CFO
Investing And Retirement In an effort to shore up U.S. workers’ retirement savings, the Labor Department has proposed new rules making it easier for companies to automatically enroll employees in 401(k) and other retirement plans. Retirement policy thi…
February 22nd, 2007 at 3:58 pm
Might be interesting to read the book… I’ve read all the books by the Motley Fools, and they are really good, highly recommended. I’ll have to check this one out.
Eric
http://blog.nationalwiderealestate.com” rel=”nofollow”>New York Real Estate