Comments on: Media Appearance: Kudlow & Company (10/03/06)

By: jkw

jkw — Wed, 04 Oct 2006 18:11:55 +0000

I think bottom to bottom comparisons could also make sense and be fair. But bottom to peak comparisons or peak to bottom comparisons certainly aren’t. And we are not at a bottom. We will know we have passed a peak when the market falls and stays down for more than a few months.

By: kennycan

kennycan — Wed, 04 Oct 2006 07:24:12 +0000

Even cherrypicking does not make the case – on Dec 31 1997 Dow closed @ 7908.25. So it is up 48.3% over an 8.5 years. I believe that is just above a 4% return. With dividends I can see you getting to 6.5 – 7%. And that is from nearly a trough to peak.

And only if you held the 30 DOW stocks though thick and thin – through the 2000 point declines in late 1998, 2001 and mid 2002 and a 1500 point decline in March/April 2000. And Sep 11.

Think many people had the guts to ride out those periods with 30 stocks and all for a sub par 7% return in the end?

Cause you ain’t making the case with the NASD.

By: minmex

minmex — Wed, 04 Oct 2006 04:41:50 +0000

Probably close versus intra-day Eddy.

By: Eddy

Eddy — Wed, 04 Oct 2006 04:37:53 +0000

I see yahoo chart the Dow’s ALL TIME HIGH is around 11908 on Jan 14 2000. But why all analyst mentioned that the all time high is 11750? Am I missing something?

By: blam

blam — Wed, 04 Oct 2006 03:26:50 +0000

The reason stocks have gone nowhere is that they have been overvalued and are now seriously overvalued.

They bounced off the recession low overvalued but gained traction because the discount rate was rediculously low. Now the short term risk free Fed money, although neutral in normal times, is more than a match for puffed-upped stocks at 19 X (generously) peak earnings on the cusp of the corporate platform structure payback.

IMO, it is a good time for retirees to withdraw.

By: V L

V L — Tue, 03 Oct 2006 23:59:46 +0000

Joe B. was reasonable and it was harder not to agree with him.
I do not know what to make out of it. I did not expect Joe B. to take on such positions and agree with Barry.
I will probably double tomorrow and short more of industrial metals bubble stocks (shorting them last Friday has been very profitable so far)

By: Mark

Mark — Tue, 03 Oct 2006 23:46:59 +0000

JmaesC-

Peak to peak is the ONLY valid comparison. The rest is cherrypicking the data.

By: njmvespa

njmvespa — Tue, 03 Oct 2006 22:15:51 +0000

Barry,

Methinks your contarian indicator (JB) says we are going higher. What say you?

By: M.Z. Forrest

M.Z. Forrest — Tue, 03 Oct 2006 21:40:31 +0000

And why make the comparison to January of 2000 rather than, say, to January of 1998 before the market set out on its bubble climb?

Comparing to a prior low just gives you growth potential (1998 admittedly wasn’t a low.) Comparing to a prior high gives you an idea of the inherent risk. 6 years to recover principle is not a short period. For the markets are always up in the long run folks, it puts long in perspective. Comparing it to a random data point in the past just gives you a data point.

If the Dow underperformed 13-week treasuries over a 12 year span, that would be valuable to know as an investor.

By: Cherry

Cherry — Tue, 03 Oct 2006 21:31:58 +0000

My father disagrees with me and thinks November is the big selloff. Post-election and recession may be about to begin that month, will have a swarm of bad news rocking the already bad fundamentals that exist. Continues with the ghost of 73.

I think it comes this month. Family bet.