Two interesting visual takes on Dow 12,000, both via the NYT:

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This one might have been more useful if we saw the millenial day counts on the way down (10k, 9k, 8k) and then back up again:

20stoxgraphic_1

graphic courtesy of NYT

This chart shows how the US Markets have performed relatively to other global markets:

21chartsgraphic

graphic courtesy of NYT

Sources:
How Far Past 12,000? Watch Data
VIKAS BAJAJ
NYT, October 20, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/20/business/20stox.html

Viewed From Abroad, the Dow at 12,000 Isn’t So Impressive
FLOYD NORRIS
NYT, October 21, 2006

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/21/business/21charts.html

Category: Investing, Markets, Technical Analysis

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

14 Responses to “Visual Takes on Dow 12,000”

  1. brion says:

    hmmm. yup. That’s the Bush economy. A flatline with a crater in the middle of it. Like Iraq; all that effort, time and MONEY spent for a rather unspectacular result.

  2. Patrick says:

    But it hit 12,000 for the first time ever!

    TWELVE-THOUSAND!

    Apparently all you need for a good economy is a good headline. Just emphasize the meaningless “records” and rely on most people being ignorant of what “Dow 12,000″ symbolizes, other than a big number attached to a stock-market name.

    This graphic is illustrative of just how stagnant the Dow, and by loose extrapolation, the US economy really is. This is the grand plateau that the housing boom provided. The technicals would suggest that another “punctuation” a la 2003 can be expected to upset this relative equilibrium. In my opinion, the fundamentals suggest that it will hit harder and deeper, especially once housing truly falls out.

    Once the election is over, the hopeful-bullish forces propping up this hollow ralley will recede and we’ll probably continue on the same trend of losing ground to a globalizing economy and a costly occupation that won’t end anytime soon, if at all.

    Granted, I could be totally wrong, but my instinct tells me that a Democratic takeover (which i do hope for) isn’t going to make the market react well, and it isn’t going to quickly solve the fundamental problems eating away at the US’ solvency, economy-wise or geopolitically.

  3. Abobtrader says:

    These charts are pretty instructive. Dow investors in 2000 are still down, on an inflation-adjusted basis – although the average man on the street may think in nominal terms, inflation in developed countries can racks up to almost 30% a decade, and this in this world of low and contained inflation expectations.

    That said, I think the charts also go to show that equity markets are a tough investment to beat over the long-term in terms of total real returns. You just need a really long time horizon to benefit from the drift.

  4. brion says:

    “a Democratic takeover (which i do hope for) isn’t going to make the market react well”

    Well, if the Dems start taking down the Potemkin village flats yes, i suppose we’ll be left with the “Reality” of whatever shape the economy is actually in. Sweeping up after the elephants is traditionally one of the toughest gigs in showbiz ;)

  5. ken says:

    The markets discount everything. A widely anticipated democratic victory is one reason the markets are rallying. This will be overdone however and once victory is certain a correction should take place. Buy the rumor, sell the fact.

  6. m3 says:

    a 9.1% rise? that’s around 1% annualized.

    charts like these make the case for secular bear markets that much stronger.

    i guess we’ll have to wait until next year to see how the fed’s battle w/inflation, the inverted yield curve, housing, iraq, the elections, and the economy all get resolved.

    it’s funny that the dow reached this peak at such a fragile tipping point.

  7. moron - briON's brother says:

    “A widely anticipated democratic victory is one reason the markets are rallying.”

    yeh just the thought of taxing the populace into recession, dismantling the truest form of evil -WalMart, and a “windfall tax” on oil companies can only be good news for stocks

  8. DD says:

    gridlock means less spending…and if you look at the first chart you can cleary see that we need to invade another nation…its good for everybody…except soldiers….maybe we could use robots…

  9. ca says:

    I miss that bubble market and economy of the 90′s …. P/E’s were 40 , 50 , 60 , 70 + / earnings , if there were earnings …. really stinks having some reality and real companies as we do now

  10. brion says:

    Taxing the populace? The rich are not the populace….They are dinner….
    I like Wal-Mart Moron. (btw- you aint no brother of mine) Windfall tax on pig Oil?? Good idea Moron….

    pps -Give my regards to Argentina when you move there. You are moving there after the Dems (grownups) take over again aren’t you? (there’s a good little kool-aid swilling fascist)

  11. Mark says:

    “Taxing the populace? The rich are not the populace….They are dinner….
    I like Wal-Mart Moron. (btw- you aint no brother of mine) Windfall tax on pig Oil?? Good idea Moron….

    pps -Give my regards to Argentina when you move there. You are moving there after the Dems (grownups) take over again aren’t you? (there’s a good little kool-aid swilling fascist)”

    wow, talk about kool-aid drinkers, so anyone that doesn’t hold your very same opinion is a fascist? so much for open mindedness and free speech. Hypocrisy does indeed breed hostility

  12. brion says:

    Mark- if you are taking Moron’s side or equating his neo-con spew with human dialogue there is no hope for you either.

  13. wunsacon says:

    Mark, brion probably reacted strongly to “moron” because “moron”‘s post (as I read it) was meant to insult more than inform; not because brion considers his/her critics to necessarily be koolaid-drinking fascists.

  14. brion says:

    BINGO 4 wunsacon. Barry’s blog seems to attract these nasty little O’Reilly winger trolls. Such folk are fascists in my book. They are the 21st century equivalent of the “Good Germans” in Hitler’s day. Blind, stupid, vicious and cruel.